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Russian food embargo and the lost trade
[Nonparametric counterfactual predictions in neoclassical models of international trade]

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  • Angela Cheptea
  • Carl Gaigné

Abstract

We analyse the impact of the Russian food embargo on European and Russian trade patterns using a triple-difference estimation strategy. We quantify the embargo-induced loss in EU28 exports at €125 million per month. Only 45 per cent of the drop in EU exports of banned products to Russia was due to the ban. EU member states were unevenly affected by the ban. The estimated losses of welfare in Russia range from 0.2 to 0.6 per cent (In absolute terms, this represents €18 to €58 of the 2013 revenue of the average Russian consumer.).

Suggested Citation

  • Angela Cheptea & Carl Gaigné, 2020. "Russian food embargo and the lost trade [Nonparametric counterfactual predictions in neoclassical models of international trade]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(2), pages 684-718.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:erevae:v:47:y:2020:i:2:p:684-718.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international trade; Russian embargo; trade diversion; intensive and extensive trade margins;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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