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Worth the pain? Firms' exporting behavior to countries under sanctions

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  • Crozet, Matthieu
  • Hinz, Julian
  • Stammann, Amrei Luise
  • Wanner, Joschka

Abstract

How do exporting firms react to sanctions? Specifically, which firms are willing - or capable - to serve the market of a sanctioned country? We investigate this question for four sanctions episodes drawing on recent econometric advances in bias-corrected dynamic high-dimensional fixed effects binary choice estimators and monthly data on the universe of French exporting firms. We find that the introduction of new sanctions significantly lowers firm-level probabilities of serving the sanctioned markets, while, importantly, the lifting of sanctions is not found to yield symmetric trade recovery effects. Additionally, sanctions effects are very heterogeneous. Firms that depend more on trade finance instruments are more strongly affected, while prior experience in the sanctioned country considerably softens the blow of sanctions, and firms can be partly immune to the sanctions effect if they are specialized in serving "crisis countries". Finally, we find suggestive evidence for sanction avoidance by exporting indirectly via neighboring countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian & Stammann, Amrei Luise & Wanner, Joschka, 2020. "Worth the pain? Firms' exporting behavior to countries under sanctions," Kiel Working Papers 2160, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2160
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Besedeš, Tibor & Goldbach, Stefan & Nitsch, Volker, 2021. "Cheap talk? Financial sanctions and non-financial firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2022. "Do China and Russia Undermine US Sanctions? Evidence from DiD and Event Study Estimation," ILE Working Paper Series 64, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    4. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova & Steven Ongena, 2023. "'Crime and Punishment'? How Banks Anticipate and Propagate Global Financial Sanctions," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-59, Swiss Finance Institute.
    5. Wei, Hao & Tu, Yue & Zhou, Peng, 2023. "Technical barriers to trade and export performance: Comparing exiting and staying firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Lastauskas, Povilas & Proškutė, Aurelija & Žaldokas, Alminas, 2023. "How do firms adjust when trade stops?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 287-307.
    7. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Keiko & Fukao, Kyoji & Deseatnicov, Ivan, 2023. "The impact of the strengthening of export controls on Japanese exports of dual-use goods," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 160-179.
    8. Mario Larch & Serge Shikher & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "Quantifying the impact of economic sanctions on international trade in the energy and mining sectors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1038-1063, July.
    9. Kim, Kyoochul, 2020. "Finding Loopholes in Sanctions: Effects of Sanctions on North Korea’s Refined Oil Prices," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 42(4), pages 1-25.
    10. Jun Qian & Xiao Sun & Ziyang Wang & Yueting Chai, 2022. "Negative Feedback Punishment Approach Helps Sanctioning Institutions Achieve Stable, Time-Saving and Low-Cost Performances," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(15), pages 1-16, August.
    11. Teemu Makkonen & Timo Mitze, 2021. "Geo-political conflicts, economic sanctions and international knowledge flows," Papers 2112.00564, arXiv.org.
    12. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian, 2023. "Blowback: The effect of sanctions on democratic elections," Kiel Working Papers 2246, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sanctions; trade; foreign policy; extensive margin; firm behaviour;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism

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