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Persistent zeros: The extensive margin of trade

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  • Hinz, Julian
  • Stammann, Amrei
  • Wanner, Joschka

Abstract

The extensive margin of bilateral trade exhibits a high level of persistence that cannot be explained by geography or trade policy. We combine a heterogeneous firms model of international trade with bounded productivity with features from the firm dynamics literature to derive expressions for an exporting country's participation in a specific destination market in a given period. The model framework asks for a dynamic binary choice estimator with two or three sets of high-dimensional fixed effects. To mitigate the incidental parameter problem associated with nonlinear fixed effects models, we characterize and implement suitable bias corrections. Extensive simulation experiments confirm the desirable statistical properties of the bias-corrected estimators. Empirically, taking two sources of persistence - true state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity - into account using a dynamic specification, along with appropriate fixed effects and bias corrections, changes the estimated effects considerably: out of the most commonly studied potential determinants (joint WTO membership, common regional trade agreement, and shared currency), only sharing a common currency retains a significant effect on whether two countries trade with each other at all in our preferred estimation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hinz, Julian & Stammann, Amrei & Wanner, Joschka, 2019. "Persistent zeros: The extensive margin of trade," Kiel Working Papers 2139, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2139
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin Weidner & Thomas Zylkin, 2019. "Bias and Consistency in Three-way Gravity Models," Papers 1909.01327, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    2. Crozet, Matthieu & Hinz, Julian & Stammann, Amrei & Wanner, Joschka, 2021. "Worth the pain? Firms’ exporting behaviour to countries under sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    high-dimensional fixed effects; dynamic panel model; binary choice; incidental parameter bias correction; trade policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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