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Exporter Dynamics and Partial-Year Effects

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew B. Bernard
  • Esther Ann Boler
  • Renzo Massari
  • Jose-Daniel Reyes
  • Daria Taglioni

Abstract

Two identical firms who start exporting in different months, one each in January and December, will report dramatically different exports for the first calendar year. This partial-year effect biases down first-year export levels and biases up first-year export growth rates. For Peruvian exporters, the partial-year bias is large: first-year export levels are understated by 54 percent and the first-year growth rate is overstated by 112 percentage points. Correcting the partial-year effect dramatically reduces first-year export growth rates, raises initial export levels, and almost doubles the contribution of net firm entry and exit to overall export growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew B. Bernard & Esther Ann Boler & Renzo Massari & Jose-Daniel Reyes & Daria Taglioni, 2017. "Exporter Dynamics and Partial-Year Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3211-3228, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:10:p:3211-28
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.20141070
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    Cited by:

    1. Albornoz, Facundo & Calvo Pardo, Héctor F. & Corcos, Gregory & Ornelas, Emanuel, 2023. "Sequentially exporting products across countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    2. Rabah Arezki & Ana Margarida Fernandes & Federico Merchán & Ha Nguyen & Tristan Reed, 2021. "Natural Resource Dependence and Monopolized Imports," CESifo Working Paper Series 9254, CESifo.
    3. Gumpert, Anna & Li, Haishi & Moxnes, Andreas & Ramondo, Natalia & Tintelnot, Felix, 2020. "The life-cycle dynamics of exporters and multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Ingo Geishecker & Philipp J. H. Schröder & Allan S⊘rensen, 2019. "One‐off export events," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(1), pages 93-131, February.
    5. Piveteau, Paul & Smagghue, Gabriel, 2019. "Estimating firm product quality using trade data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 217-232.
    6. Jerónimo Carballo & Georg Schaur & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2016. "Posts as Trade Facilitators," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 94576, Inter-American Development Bank.
    7. Erbahar, Aksel & Rebeyrol, Vincent, 2023. "Trade intermediation by producers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Alex Coad & Sven-Olov Daunfeldt & Daniel Halvarsson, 2022. "Amundsen versus Scott: are growth paths related to firm performance?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 593-610, August.
    9. Ryan Monarch & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2017. "Learning and the Value of Trade Relationships," International Finance Discussion Papers 1218, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Hinz, Julian & Stammann, Amrei & Wanner, Joschka, 2019. "Persistent zeros: The extensive margin of trade," Kiel Working Papers 2139, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Silviano Esteve‐Pérez, 2021. "Previous experience, experimentation and export survival: Evidence from firm‐product‐destination level data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2638-2682, September.
    12. Alex Coad & Masatoshi Kato, 2021. "Growth paths and routes to exit: 'shadow of death' effects for new firms in Japan," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1145-1173, October.
    13. Aksel Erbahar, 2020. "Two worlds apart? Export demand shocks and domestic sales," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(2), pages 313-342, May.
    14. HOSONO Kaoru & TAKIZAWA Miho & YAMANOUCHI Kenta, 2020. "Firm Age, Productivity, and Intangible Capital," Discussion papers 20001, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    15. Crowley, M. A. & Exton, O. & Han, L., 2018. "Renegotiation of Trade Agreements and Firm Exporting Decisions: Evidence from the Impact of Brexit on UK Exports," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1839, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Sebastian Heise, 2019. "Firm-to-Firm Relationships and the Pass-Through of Shocks: Theory and Evidence," Staff Reports 896, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    17. Rigo, Davide, 2024. "The role of firm-to-firm relationships in exporter dynamics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121135, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Haichao Fan & Tuan Anh Luong & Edwin L‐C. Lai & Lina Zhang, 2022. "Import liberalization and export product mix," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 419-457, February.
    19. Sebastián Fanelli & Juan Carlos Hallak, 2020. "Export Survival with Uncertainty and Experimentation," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4356, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    20. Carballo, Jerónimo & Schaur, Georg & Volpe Martincus, Christian, 2016. "Posts as Trade Facilitators," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7681, Inter-American Development Bank.
    21. Gimenez-Perales, Victor, 2022. "The Dynamics of Importer-Exporter Connections," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    22. Matteo Barigozzi & Angelo Cuzzola & Marco Grazzi & Daniele Moschella, 2021. "Factoring in the micro: a transaction-level dynamic factor approach to the decomposition of export volatility," LEM Papers Series 2021/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    23. He, Dongwei & Wang, Yunfei & You, Kai, 2023. "Market entry and the dynamics of export product quality: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 692-706.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

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