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The Ruble between the Hammer and the Anvil: The Impact of Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions

Author

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  • Christian Dreger
  • Konstantin Kholodilin

Abstract

The Russian economy is tightly woven into the global economy, and is therefore highly dependent on the development of exchange rates. Since 2014, the ruble has fallen by more than 50 percent against the US dollar. The de¬valuation goes hand in hand with the Western sanctions that were imposed due to the political tensions between Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, the decline in oil prices may also have contributed to the ruble’s depreciation. The study at hand examines the relative importance of the different factors influencing the ruble’s exchange rate. It turns out that the devaluation is mostly due to the falling oil prices, while the sanctions are playing a rather subordinate role.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Dreger & Konstantin Kholodilin, 2015. "The Ruble between the Hammer and the Anvil: The Impact of Oil Prices and Economic Sanctions," DIW Economic Bulletin, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 5(44), pages 587-591.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwdeb:2015-44-1
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2020. "Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 97-146.
    2. Nady Rapelanoro & BALI Morad, 2020. "International Economic Sanctions: Multipurpose Index Modelling in the Ukrainian Crisis Case," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-8, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Hinz, Julian & Monastyrenko, Evgenii, 2022. "Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    4. Ahn, Daniel P. & Ludema, Rodney D., 2020. "The sword and the shield: The economics of targeted sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    5. V. Arkhipova V. & В. Архипова В., 2017. "Современный санкционный режим в отношении России: характеристика и глобальный аспект // Current Sanctions Regime Against Russia: Characteristics and Global Aspect," Мир новой экономики // The world of new economy, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Governtment оf The Russian Federation, issue 2, pages 13-19.
    6. Peeva, Aleksandra, 2019. "Did sanctions help Putin?," Discussion Papers 2019/7, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    7. Klose, Jens, 2024. "Empirical effects of sanctions and support measures on stock prices and exchange rates in the Russia–Ukraine war," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    8. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2016. "Collateral Damage: The impact of the Russia sanctions on sanctioning countries’ exports," Working Papers 2016-16, CEPII research center.
    9. Hinz, Julian, 2017. "The cost of sanctions: Estimating lost trade with gravity," Kiel Working Papers 2093, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2020. "The Impact of International Sanctions on Russian Financial Markets," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-14, December.
    11. Elisabeth Christen & Oliver Fritz & Gerhard Streicher & Julian Hinz, 2016. "Auswirkungen der Wirtschaftssanktionen der EU und Russlands auf Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung in Österreich und der EU," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 59227, April.
    12. Morad Bali, 2018. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Russia and its Six Greatest European Trade Partners," Post-Print halshs-01918521, HAL.
    13. Mirzosaid Sultonov, 2022. "Regional Economic and Financial Interconnectedness and the Impact of Sanctions: The Case of the Commonwealth of Independent States," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, November.
    14. Aleksei Anatolievich Ustiuzhanin & Irina Aleksandrovna Liman & Elena Petrovna Kiselitsa & Natalia Nikolaevna Shilova & Tatiana Ivanovna Leyman, 2019. "The ruble exchange rate and the price of oil: assessment of the degree of dependence, its causes and ways of overcoming," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 7(1), pages 121-132, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political conflict; sanctions; oil prices; Russian ruble depreciation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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