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Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s? A structural interpretation of changes in the macroeconomic effects of oil prices

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Cited by:

  1. Cardani, Roberta & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2023. "The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  2. Nils Gornemann & Sebastian Hildebrand & Keith Kuester, 2022. "Limited Energy Supply, Sunspots, and Monetary Policy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 215, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
  3. Knut Are Aastveit & Hilde C. Bjørnland & Jamie L. Cross, 2023. "Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 733-743, May.
  4. Martin Bruns & Helmut Luetkepohl, 2023. "Have the Effects of Shocks to Oil Price Expectations Changed? Evidence from Heteroskedastic Proxy Vector Autoregressions," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2023-03, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  5. Niizeki Takeshi, 2014. "Capacity utilization and the effects of energy price increases in Japan," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-26, January.
  6. Doko Tchatoka, Firmin & Groshenny, Nicolas & Haque, Qazi & Weder, Mark, 2017. "Monetary policy and indeterminacy after the 2001 slump," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 83-95.
  7. Hofmann, Boris & Peersman, Gert & Straub, Roland, 2012. "Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 769-783.
  8. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2024. "Output volatility and exchange rates: New evidence from the updated de facto exchange rate regime classifications," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 894-908.
  9. Verónica Acurio Vásconez, 2015. "Oil and Unemployment in a New-Keynesian Model," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15043, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  10. Nicolò Gnocato, 2024. "Energy price shocks, unemployment, and monetary policy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1450, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  11. Hodula Martin & Vahalík Bohdan, 2017. "Effects of oil shocks on EMU exports: technological level differences," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(4), pages 399-423, December.
  12. Ascari, Guido & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Rossi, Lorenza, 2011. "Calvo vs. Rotemberg in a trend inflation world: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 1852-1867.
  13. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Inflation," Working Papers 2312, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  14. Rajesh H. Acharya & Anver C. Sadath, 2018. "Revisiting the relationship between oil price and macro economy: Evidence from India," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(1), pages 173-190.
  15. Valerie A. Ramey & Daniel J. Vine, 2011. "Oil, Automobiles, and the US Economy: How Much Have Things Really Changed?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2010, volume 25, pages 333-367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Bataa, Erdenebat & Izzeldin, Marwan & Osborn, Denise R., 2016. "Changes in the global oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 161-176.
  17. Martin Fukac, 2011. "Have rising oil prices become a greater threat to price stability?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 96(Q IV), pages 27-53.
  18. Francesco Nucci & Marianna Riggi, 2009. "The Great Moderation and Changes in the Structure of Labor Compensation," Working Papers in Public Economics 124, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
  19. Krzysztof Drachal, 2018. "Determining Time-Varying Drivers of Spot Oil Price in a Dynamic Model Averaging Framework," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-24, May.
  20. Acurio Vásconez, Verónica & Giraud, Gaël & Mc Isaac, Florent & Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2015. "The effects of oil price shocks in a new-Keynesian framework with capital accumulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 844-854.
  21. Antonio J., Garzón & Luis A., Hierro, 2022. "Inflation, oil prices and exchange rates. The Euro’s dampening effect," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 130-146.
  22. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real‐Time Out‐of‐Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 449-463, March.
  23. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2014. "A simple model of an oil based global savings glut—the “China factor”and the OPEC cartel," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 413-430, September.
  24. Riggi, Marianna & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2015. "The time varying effect of oil price shocks on euro-area exports," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 75-94.
  25. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  26. Anuar Sanusi & Faurani Santi Singagerda & Ahmad Zaharuddin Sani, 2021. "World Oil Price Shocks in Macroeconomic ASEAN +3 Countries: Measurement of Risk Management and Decision-making a Linear Dynamic Panel Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 75-83.
  27. Francesco Corsello & Alex Tagliabracci, 2023. "Assessing the pass-through of energy prices to inflation in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 745, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  28. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Policy Research Notes (PRNs) 94725, The World Bank.
  29. Mr. Rabah Arezki & Zoltan Jakab & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Akito Matsumoto & Armen Nurbekyan & Hou Wang & Jiaxiong Yao, 2017. "Oil Prices and the Global Economy," IMF Working Papers 2017/015, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Jo, Soojin & Karnizova, Lilia & Reza, Abeer, 2019. "Industry effects of oil price shocks: A re-examination," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 179-190.
  31. Haque, Qazi & Groshenny, Nicolas & Weder, Mark, 2021. "Do we really know that U.S. monetary policy was destabilizing in the 1970s?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  32. Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar, 2016. "Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Global Financial Crisis," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.13, Bank of Israel.
  33. Francesca Rondina, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price Changes in a New Keynesian Model of the U.S. Economy," Working Papers 1709E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
  34. Koirala, Niraj Prasad & Ma, Xiaohan, 2020. "Oil price uncertainty and U.S. employment growth," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
  35. Ma, Xiaohan, 2023. "Oil uncertainty and the price-cost markup: Evidence from U.S. data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
  36. Ewing, Bradley T. & Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2018. "The dynamic effects of oil supply shocks on the US stock market returns of upstream oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 505-516.
  37. George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino & Fabrizio Venditti, 2019. "Large time‐varying parameter VARs: A nonparametric approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 1027-1049, November.
  38. Molyneaux, Lynette & Brown, Colin & Foster, John & Wagner, Liam, 2016. "Resilience, coal and the macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 74516, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. Morana, Claudio, 2017. "Macroeconomic and financial effects of oil price shocks: Evidence for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 82-96.
  40. Khalil, Makram, 2020. "Global oil prices and the macroeconomy: The role of tradeable manufacturing versus nontradeable services," Discussion Papers 60/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  41. Oladosu, Gbadebo A. & Leiby, Paul N. & Bowman, David C. & Uría-Martínez, Rocio & Johnson, Megan M., 2018. "Impacts of oil price shocks on the United States economy: A meta-analysis of the oil price elasticity of GDP for net oil-importing economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 523-544.
  42. Robert J. Gordon, 2013. "The Phillips Curve is Alive and Well: Inflation and the NAIRU During the Slow Recovery," NBER Working Papers 19390, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Claudio Morana, 2013. "The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship Since the Mid-1980s: A Global Perspective," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
  44. Sussman, Nathan & Zohar, Osnat, 2016. "Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Globa," CEPR Discussion Papers 11535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Swati Singh & Naveen Srinivasan, 2020. "The Oil Story: Is it Still the Same?," Working Papers 2020-197, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
  46. Veronica ACURIO VASCONEZ, 2020. "What if Oil was Less Substitutable?," Working Papers of BETA 2020-08, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
  47. Haque, Qazi & Groshenny, Nicolas & Weder, Mark, 2021. "Do we really know that U.S. monetary policy was destabilizing in the 1970s?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
  48. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Oil Price Changes and U.S. Real GDP Growth: Is this Time Different?," QBS Working Paper Series 2018/03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
  49. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2016. "Forecasting spot oil price in a dynamic model averaging framework — Have the determinants changed over time?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 35-46.
  50. J. Scott Davis & Adrienne Mack, 2013. "Cross-country variation in the anchoring of inflation expectations," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Oct.
  51. J. Scott Davis, 2012. "The effect of commodity price shocks on underlying inflation: the role of central bank credibility," Globalization Institute Working Papers 134, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  52. Timilsina, Govinda R., 2015. "Oil prices and the global economy: A general equilibrium analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 669-675.
  53. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, September.
  54. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2022. "Oil shocks and global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  55. Kamel Malik Bensafta, 2022. "The impact of oil price shocks on economic growth in Algeria," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2022(2), pages 63-82.
  56. Borozan, Djula & Lolic Cipcic, Marina, 2022. "Asymmetric and nonlinear oil price pass-through to economic growth in Croatia: Do oil-related policy shocks matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  57. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2014. "Where Is An Oil Shock?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 169-185, March.
  58. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2013. "Alternative inflation hedging strategies for ALM," MPRA Paper 43755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  59. Jesus Cuauhtemoc Tellez Gaytan & Aqila Rafiuddin & Gyanendra Singh Sisodia & Gouher Ahmed & CH Paramaiah, 2023. "Pass-through Effects of Oil Prices on LATAM Emerging Stocks before and during COVID-19: An Evidence from a Wavelet -VAR Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 529-543, January.
  60. Lyu, Yifei, 2021. "Accounting for the declining economic effects of oil price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
  61. Abdul A. Erumban, 2023. "The Falling Productivity in West Asian Arab Countries Since the 1980s: Causes, Consequences, and Cures," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 44, pages 89-119, Fall.
  62. Porqueddu Mario & Venditti Fabrizio, 2014. "Do food commodity prices have asymmetric effects on euro-area inflation?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-25, September.
  63. Verónica Acurio Vásconez, 2015. "What if oil is less substitutable? A New-Keynesian Model with Oil, Price and Wage Stickiness including Capital Accumulation," Post-Print halshs-01167027, HAL.
  64. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2015. "Time-varying effect of oil market shocks on the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 150-163.
  65. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios, 2023. "Oil shocks and investor attention," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 68-81.
  66. Aviad Tur-Sinai, 2014. "Adaptation patterns and consumer behavior as a dependency on terror," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 13(2), pages 257-269, November.
  67. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_020 is not listed on IDEAS
  68. Tarek Ghazouani, 2020. "Energy Price Shocks and Financial Market Integration: Evidence from New Keynesian Model," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 13-32, February.
  69. Bondia, Ripsy & Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2016. "International crude oil prices and the stock prices of clean energy and technology companies: Evidence from non-linear cointegration tests with unknown structural breaks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 558-565.
  70. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Grant, Angelia L., 2016. "Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 182-189.
  71. Nguyen, Thanh Pham Thien & Nghiem, Son & Tripe, David, 2021. "Does oil price aggravate the impact of economic policy uncertainty on bank performance in India?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  72. Maximilian Konradt & Beatrice Weder, 2023. "Carbon Taxation and Greenflation: Evidence from Europe and Canada," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(6), pages 2518-2546.
  73. Mehmet Demiral & Emrah Eray Akça & Ipek Tekin, 2021. "Predictors of global carbon dioxide emissions: Do stringent environmental policies matter?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(12), pages 18337-18361, December.
  74. Francesco Corsello & Matteo Gomellini & Dario Pellegrino, 2023. "Inflation and energy price shocks: lessons from the 1970s," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 790, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  75. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Efrem Castelnuovo & Luca Fanelli, 2014. "Gimme a break! Identification and estimation of the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0181, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
  76. Amir Yaron & Steffen Hitzemann, 2017. "Welfare Costs of Oil Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1381, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  77. Thomas Theobald & Peter Hohlfeld, 2017. "Why have the recent oil price declines not stimulated global economic growth?," IMK Working Paper 185-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  78. Sharma, Shahil, 2017. "Oil price shocks and American depositary receipt stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1040-1056.
  79. Francesco Corsello & Marianna Riggi, 2023. "Inflation is not equal for all: the heterogenous effects of energy shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1429, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  80. Deluna, Roperto S. & Loanzon, Jeanette Isabelle V. & Tatlonghari, Virgilio M., 2021. "A nonlinear ARDL model of inflation dynamics in the Philippine economy," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
  81. Lorenzo Forni & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2012. "Euro area and global oil shocks: an empirical model-based analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 873, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  82. Loberto, Michele & Perricone, Chiara, 2017. "Does trend inflation make a difference?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 351-375.
  83. J. Scott Davis & Ignacio Presno, 2014. "Inflation targeting and the anchoring of inflation expectations: cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts," Globalization Institute Working Papers 174, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  84. Angela Ifeanyi Ukemenam & Babatunde Opadeji & Tuwe Soro Garbobiya & Augustine Ujunwa, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Oil Price Shock in Nigeria: Persistent or Transitory," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(11), pages 1-28, November.
  85. Yau, Ruey & Chen, Guan-Han, 2021. "Assessing energy subsidy policies in a structural macroeconomic model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  86. Wei, Yanfeng, 2019. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and China’s trade: A quantitative structural analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 20-31.
  87. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "The role of economic development for the effect of oil market shocks on oil-exporting countries. Evidence from the interacted panel VAR model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  88. Fulli-Lemaire, Nicolas, 2012. "Allocating Commodities in Inflation Hedging Portfolios: A Core Driven Global Macro Strategy," MPRA Paper 42852, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Oct 2012.
  89. Glück, Thorsten & Adams, Zeno, 2023. "Systemic Risk of Commodity Traders," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277600, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  90. Khalil, Makram, 2022. "Oil prices, manufacturing goods, and nontradeable services," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  91. Dohyoung Kwon, 2024. "Changes in the effects of oil price shocks on US industrial production," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 2515-2526, April.
  92. Liu, Chunbo & Zhang, Xuan & Zhou, Zhiping, 2023. "Are commodity futures a hedge against inflation? A Markov-switching approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
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  94. Venditti, Fabrizio, 2013. "From oil to consumer energy prices: How much asymmetry along the way?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 468-473.
  95. Juan Pablo Medina Guzman & Claudia Soto, 2014. "Commodity Price Shocks and Imperfectly Credible Macroeconomic Policies in Commodity-Exporting Small Open Economies," IMF Working Papers 2014/033, International Monetary Fund.
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  97. J. Scott Davis, 2012. "Central bank credibility and the persistence of inflation and inflation expectations," Globalization Institute Working Papers 117, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  98. Thomas Walther & Lanouar Charfeddine & Tony Klein, 2018. "Oil Price Changes and U.S. Real GDP Growth: Is this Time Different?," Working Papers on Finance 1816, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  99. Joseph P Byrne & Erkal Ersoy, 2020. "Endogenous Uncertainty in the Oil Market: A Bayesian Stochastic Volatility-in-Mean Analysis," CEERP Working Paper Series 012, Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University.
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