IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_851_24.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

What caused the post-pandemic inflation in Italy? An application of Bernanke and Blanchard (2023)

Author

Listed:
  • Massimiliano Pisani

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Alex Tagliabracci

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We estimate using Italian data the model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to explain the dynamics of prices and wages in the post-pandemic period in Italy. The empirical analysis shows that the model performs well in capturing inflation developments, which were mainly driven by the energy and food components, but the fit of the wage dynamics is not entirely satisfactory as the specific features of the Italian labor market are not adequately described by the econometric specification considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimiliano Pisani & Alex Tagliabracci, 2024. "What caused the post-pandemic inflation in Italy? An application of Bernanke and Blanchard (2023)," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 851, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_851_24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2024-0851/QEF_851_24.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Marianna Riggi, 2013. "WHY ARE THE 2000s SO DIFFERENT FROM THE 1970s? A STRUCTURAL INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(5), pages 1032-1052, October.
    2. Corsello, Francesco & Neri, Stefano & Tagliabracci, Alex, 2021. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    3. Cristina Conflitti and Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    4. Gregory de Walque & Thomas Lejeune, 2024. "What caused the post-pandemic era inflation in Belgium? Replication of the Bernanke-Blanchard model for Belgium," Working Paper Research 447, National Bank of Belgium.
    5. Tiziano Ropele & Alex Tagliabracci, 2024. "Perceived economic effects of the war in Ukraine: survey-based evidence from Italian firms," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 275-280, February.
    6. Cristina Conflitti & Matteo Luciani, 2019. "Oil Price Pass-through into Core Inflation," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(6), pages 221-248, November.
    7. Koester, Gerrit & Grapow, Helen, 2021. "The prevalence of private sector wage indexation in the euro area and its potential role for the impact of inflation on wages," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 7.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nuno Vilarinho Goncalves, 2024. "Post-pandemic inflation dynamics in Portugal: an application of the Bernanke-Blanchard model," Working Papers w202418, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francesco Corsello & Alex Tagliabracci, 2023. "Assessing the pass-through of energy prices to inflation in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 745, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Stefano Neri & Fabio Busetti & Cristina Conflitti & Francesco Corsello & Davide Delle Monache & Alex Tagliabracci, 2023. "Energy price shocks and inflation in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 792, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Chung, Changwoo & Kim, Jinsoo, 2024. "Greenflation, a myth or fact? Empirical evidence from 26 OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Casoli, Chiara & Manera, Matteo & Valenti, Daniele, 2024. "Energy shocks in the Euro area: Disentangling the pass-through from oil and gas prices to inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. Gründler, Daniel, 2024. "Does the inflation pass-through of gasoline price shocks depend on the level of inflation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    6. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2023. "Oil Price Shocks and Inflation," Working Papers 2312, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    7. Gertjan Vlieghe, 2024. "Core Strength: International Evidence on the Impact of Energy Prices on Core Inflation," Discussion Papers 2407, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    8. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Jakob de Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2024. "Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 425-457, June.
    9. Alessandro Paolo Rigamonti & Giulio Greco & Mariarita Pierotti & Alessandro Capocchi, 2024. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and earnings management: evidence from commodity firms," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1615-1649, May.
    10. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Leonardo Melosi & Sebastian Rast, 2025. "Long-Run Inflation Expectations," Working Paper Series WP 2025-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    11. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_010 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Acurio Vásconez, Verónica & Giraud, Gaël & Mc Isaac, Florent & Pham, Ngoc-Sang, 2015. "The effects of oil price shocks in a new-Keynesian framework with capital accumulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 844-854.
    13. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2014. "A simple model of an oil based global savings glut—the “China factor”and the OPEC cartel," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 413-430, September.
    14. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2023. "The anchoring of long-term inflation expectations of consumers: insights from a new survey," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 96-116.
    15. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Pagliari, Maria Sole, 2024. "Does one (unconventional) size fit all? Effects of the ECB’s unconventional monetary policies on the euro area economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    17. Guido Bulligan & Francesco Corsello & Stefano Neri & Alex Tagliabracci, 2021. "De-anchored long-term inflation expectations in a low growth, low rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 624, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    19. Ascari, Guido & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Rossi, Lorenza, 2011. "Calvo vs. Rotemberg in a trend inflation world: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 1852-1867.
    20. J. Scott Davis, 2012. "The effect of commodity price shocks on underlying inflation: the role of central bank credibility," Globalization Institute Working Papers 134, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    21. Lucio Gobbi & Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2022. "Monetary policy, rational confidence, and Neo‐Fisherian depressions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 1179-1199, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; wages; inflation expectations; energy; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_851_24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.