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Perceived economic effects of the war in Ukraine: survey-based evidence from Italian firms

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  • Tiziano Ropele
  • Alex Tagliabracci

Abstract

Using data from an Italian business survey and a quasi-experimental analysis, we document the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on firms’ expectations. The conflict led firms to revise upward their inflation expectations and their own expected prices changes and made them more pessimistic about the general macroeconomic outlook and their business conditions. These effects did not materialize immediately after the Russian invasion but built up in the second and third weeks thereafter.

Suggested Citation

  • Tiziano Ropele & Alex Tagliabracci, 2024. "Perceived economic effects of the war in Ukraine: survey-based evidence from Italian firms," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 275-280, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:31:y:2024:i:4:p:275-280
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2022.2131710
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    Cited by:

    1. Massimiliano Pisani & Alex Tagliabracci, 2024. "What caused the post-pandemic inflation in Italy? An application of Bernanke and Blanchard (2023)," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 851, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Petreski Marjan, 2024. "The Impact of the Crisis Induced by the Conflict in Ukraine on Firms: Evidence from North Macedonia," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 123-144.

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