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Three Essays on the Role of Frictions in the Economy

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  • Meradj Mortezapouraghdam

    (Département d'économie)

Abstract

Cette thèse se compose de trois études sur le rôle du désaccord en économie. Dans le premier chapitre, j’étudie l’impact des incertitudes judiciaires sur le rôle du désaccord dans le marché financier. J’ai commencé par documenter et définir ces incertitudes judiciaires, de la manière la plus approfondie et détaillée possible. L’incertitude liée à la capacité imparfaite d’observation par des régulateurs est intitulée the monitoring problem, et celle liée à la pénalité et la possibilité de payer des amendes the enforceability problem. J’introduis ces concepts dans un modèle avec frictions financières. La simulation du modèle nous montre que la capacité d’observation des régulateurs détermine la stabilité ou la fragilité du secteur bancaire. Le coût du capital n’augmente pas beaucoup dans une économie avec des incertitudes judiciaires mais le taux de retour de l’économie à l’état stationnaire baisse. Par exemple le taux de retour de l’économie à l’état stationnaire (après avoir subi un choc externe de niveau moyen) dure en moyenne 7 – 12 trimestres. Je donne des arguments que cela est en raison de changement de qualité des actifs en présences des incertitudes judiciaires. Finalement, je regarde si le modèle simulé pourrait reprendre les fluctuations du cycle économique après la crise financière et il le fait bien. En outre je donne des arguments détaillés pour l’analyse des programmes de bien-être social en présence des incertitudes judiciaires. Dans le deuxième chapitre, j’étudie la volatilité due au désaccord dans le marché du travail. J’essaye d’identifier les sources de cette volatilité élevée de manière structurelle. Ainsi, j’utilise un vecteur autorégressif avec volatilité stochastique (Time Varying Parameter SVAR) pour investiguer les propriétés de la création d’emploi aux Etats-Unis et leurs variations dans le temps. Au vu des résultats, un choc technologique semble expliquer moins de 40% des fluctuations observées de la volatilité de la création d’emplois après les années 1980 et ils indiquent que la volatilité dépend largement des chocs de demande et de prix. Les postes vacants (autrement dit, la création d’emploi) réagissaient négativement aux chocs technologiques jusqu’au début des années 90. On retrouve la même tendance pour la période récente. Ce résultat est très important pour les autorités publiques car il remet en question la création d’emplois suite à de nouvelles technologies. Le troisième chapitre est consacré au désaccord sur le marché des prêts où je montre comment le droit des faillites pourrait intensifier le problème d’aléa moral entre une entreprise débitrice et ses créanciers. Ce chapitre essaye de faire un lien entre le droit des faillites et le coût du capital en étudiant le niveau de demande des clauses restrictives dans un contrat. L’hypothèse que je vais essayer de valider empiriquement est celle-ci : si le droit de faillite devient de plus en plus en faveur des entreprises, les créanciers mettent en place de plus en plus de clauses restrictives dans le contrat (c’est-à-dire cherchent à obtenir un contrôle renforcé sur le comportement des débiteurs). Je valide l’hypothèse susmentionnée et je montre qu’une clause restrictive additionnelle baisse le taux de rentabilité par 23 points de base. Ainsi, Je donne une nouvelle interprétation des clauses restrictive par rapport à la littérature.

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  • Meradj Mortezapouraghdam, 2016. "Three Essays on the Role of Frictions in the Economy," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/293qice3lj8, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/293qice3lj861rvos9ns14n0h0
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