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Capital Flows in an Aging World

Author

Listed:
  • Zsofia Barany

    (Département d'économie)

  • Nicolas Coeurdacier

    (Département d'économie)

  • Stéphane Guibaud

    (Département d'économie)

Abstract

We investigate the importance of worldwide demographic evolutions in shaping capital flows across countries and over time. Our lifecycle model incorporates cross-country differences in fertility and longevity as well as differences in countries’ ability to borrow inter-temporally and across generations through social security. In this environment, global aging triggers uphill capital flows from emerging to advanced economies, while country-specific demographic evolutions reallocate capital towards countries aging more slowly. Our quantitative multi-country overlapping generations model explains a large fraction of long-term capital flows across advanced and emerging countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2018. "Capital Flows in an Aging World," Sciences Po publications 13180, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1evugr7cvq8naonad7623t1rbv
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    Cited by:

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    3. Mai Chi Dao & Callum Jones, 2018. "Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 2018/264, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Papapetrou, Evangelia & Tsalaporta, Pinelopi, 2020. "The impact of population aging in rich countries: What’s the future?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 77-95.
    5. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Searching The Us Fdi Determinants In The Eu: Is There A Euro Effect?," Working Papers 1916, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    6. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Is there a euro effect in the drivers of US FDI? New evidence using Bayesian Model Averaging techniques," Working Papers 2020/25, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    7. Noëmie Lisack & Rana Sajedi & Gregory Thwaites, 2021. "Population Aging and the Macroeconomy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 43-80, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Aging; Household Saving; International Capital Flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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