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An OLG model of global imbalances

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  • Sara Eugeni

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between East Asian countries' high propensity to save and global imbalances in a two-country OLG model with production. The absence of pay-as-you-go pension systems can rationalize the saving behavior of emerging economies and capital outflows to the United States. The model predicts that the country with no pay-as-you-go system can run a trade surplus only as long as the long-run growth rate of the economy is higher than the real interest rate (capital overaccumulation case). The low real interest rates in the US is evidence in favor of the hypothesis that there is a "global saving glut" in the world economy. The model can also explain why the US current account deteriorated gradually and only in the late 1990s, although the net foreign asset position had already turned negative in the early 1980s. Finally, this analysis implies that the introduction of a pay-as-you-go system in China would have the effect of reducing the imbalances.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 13/05.

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Date of creation: Feb 2013
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Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:13/05
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Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom

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Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/economics/
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Keywords: global imbalances; capital flows; current account dynamics; OLG model; pay-as-you-go-system;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
  • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
  • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
  • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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Cited by:

  1. Karl Farmer & Bogdan Mihaiescu, 2016. "Credit constraints and differential growth in equilibrium modeling of EMU and global trade imbalances," Graz Economics Papers 2016-05, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
  2. Frederic Ganon & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2016. "Aging, international capital flows and long-run convergence," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-09, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  3. James Staveley-O'Carroll & Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll, 2016. "Impact of Pension System Structure on International Financial Capital Allocation," Working Papers 1601, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
  4. Karl Farmer & Irina Ban, 2014. "Modeling financial integration, intra-EMU and Asian-US external imbalances," Graz Economics Papers 2014-06, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
  5. Karl Farmer & Bogdan Mihaiescu, 2015. "Pension systems and financial constraints in a three-country OLG model of intra-EMU and global trade imbalances," Graz Economics Papers 2015-08, University of Graz, Department of Economics.

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