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An OLG model of global imbalances

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  • Sara Eugeni

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between East Asian countries' high propensity to save and global imbalances in a two-country OLG model with production. The absence of pay-as-you-go pension systems can rationalize the saving behavior of emerging economies and capital outflows to the United States. The model predicts that the country with no pay-as-you-go system can run a trade surplus only as long as the long-run growth rate of the economy is higher than the real interest rate (capital overaccumulation case). The low real interest rates in the US is evidence in favor of the hypothesis that there is a "global saving glut" in the world economy. The model can also explain why the US current account deteriorated gradually and only in the late 1990s, although the net foreign asset position had already turned negative in the early 1980s. Finally, this analysis implies that the introduction of a pay-as-you-go system in China would have the effect of reducing the imbalances.

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  • Sara Eugeni, 2013. "An OLG model of global imbalances," Discussion Papers 13/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
  • Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:13/05
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    Cited by:

    1. Eugeni, Sara, 2016. "Global imbalances in the XIX, XX and the XXI centuries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 69-72.
    2. Staveley-O’Carroll, James & Staveley-O’Carroll, Olena M., 2017. "Impact of pension system structure on international financial capital allocation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 1-22.
    3. Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "When old meets young? Germany's population ageing and the current account," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 315-336.
    4. Karl Farmer & Irina Ban, 2017. "Modeling Financial Integration, Intra-EMU and Asian-US External Imbalances," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 23(3), pages 261-281, August.
    5. Hua Chai & Jun Il Kim, 2018. "Demographics, Pension Systems and the Saving-Investment Balance," IMF Working Papers 2018/265, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Frederic Ganon & Gilles Le Garrec & Vincent Touzé, 2016. "Aging, international capital flows and long-run convergence," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-09, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    7. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Eugeni, Sara, 2015. "Nominal Exchange Rates and Net Foreign Assets' Dynamics: the Stabilization Role of Valuation Effects," MPRA Paper 63549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Dramane Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2018. "The tale of two international phenomena: International migration and global imbalances," Working Papers 2018-02, CEPII research center.
    10. Schön, Matthias, 2019. "Demographic change and the German current account surplus," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203527, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    11. Coulibaly, Dramane & Gnimassoun, Blaise & Mignon, Valérie, 2020. "The tale of two international phenomena: Migration and global imbalances," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    12. Eichengreen, Barry & Esteves, Rui, 2019. "The Trials of the Trilemma: International Finance 1870-2017," CEPR Discussion Papers 13465, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Zhang, Ning, 2019. "Country portfolios under global imbalances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 302-317.
    14. van Suntum, Ulrich, 2018. "The natural interest rate in OLG modelling: A rehabilitation," CAWM Discussion Papers 103, University of Münster, Center of Applied Economic Research Münster (CAWM).
    15. Karl Farmer & Bogdan Mihaiescu, 2016. "Credit constraints and differential growth in equilibrium modeling of EMU and global trade imbalances," Graz Economics Papers 2016-05, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    16. Karl Farmer & Bogdan Mihaiescu, 2015. "Pension systems and financial constraints in a three-country OLG model of intra-EMU and global trade imbalances," Graz Economics Papers 2015-08, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    17. Frédérique GANNON & Gilles LE GARREC & Vincent TOUZÉ, 2020. "The South’s Demographic Transtiton and International Capital Flows in a Financially Integrated World Economy," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-45, March.
    18. Karl Farmer, 2016. "The Intertemporal Equilibrium Modeling of Intra-EMU and Global Trade Imbalances," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 22(4), pages 377-395, November.
    19. Niemeläinen, Julia, 2021. "External imbalances between China and the United States: A dynamic analysis with a life-cycle model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    20. Partha Sen, 2020. "Postponing Retirement and Social Security in a Two Sector Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 8751, CESifo.
    21. Mai Chi Dao & Callum Jones, 2018. "Demographics, Old-Age Transfers and the Current Account," IMF Working Papers 2018/264, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Mr. Pau Rabanal & Luciana Juvenal & Gustavo Adler & Ms. Carolina Osorio Buitron & Jair Rodriguez & Ms. Nan Li & Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan & Signe Krogstrup & Mai Chi Dao & Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia & Callu, 2019. "The External Balance Assessment Methodology: 2018 Update," IMF Working Papers 2019/065, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2018. "Capital Flows in an Aging World," Sciences Po publications 13180, Sciences Po.
    24. Miriam Koomen & Laurence Wicht, 2020. "Demographics, pension systems, and the current account: an empirical assessment using the IMF current account model," Working Papers 2020-23, Swiss National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    global imbalances; capital flows; current account dynamics; OLG model; pay-as-you-go-system;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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