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Lessons for an Aging Society: The Political Sustainability of Social Security Systems

  • Vincenzo Galasso
  • Paola Profeta

What is the future of social security systems in OECD countries? In our view, the answer belongs to the realm of politics. We evaluate how political constraints shape the social security system in six countries – France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK and the US – under population aging. Two main aspects of the aging process are relevant to the analysis. First, the increase in the dependency ratio – the ratio of retirees to workers – reduces the average profitability of the unfunded social security system, thereby inducing the agents to reduce the size of the system by substituting their claims towards future pensions with more private savings. Second, an aging electorate leads to larger systems, since it increases the relevance of pension spending on the policy-makers’ agenda. The overall assessment from our simulations is that the political aspect dominates in all countries, albeit with some differences. Spain, the fastest aging country, faces the largest increase in the social security contribution rate. When labor market considerations are introduced, the political effect still dominates, but it is less sizeable. Country specific characteristics (not accounted for in our simulations), such as the degree of redistribution in the pension system and the existence of family ties in the society, may also matter. Our simulations deliver a strong policy implication: an increase in the effective retirement age always decreases the size of the system chosen by the voters, while often increasing its generosity. Finally, delegation of pension policy to the EC may reduce political accountability and hence help to reform the systems.

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Paper provided by IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University in its series Working Papers with number 244.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:igi:igierp:244
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  1. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso, . "The Macroeconomic of Early Retirement," Working Papers 194, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  2. Casey B Mulligan, 1999. "Gerontocracy, Retirement, and Social Security," University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State 154, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
  3. Marco Manacorda & Enrico Moretti, 2002. "Intergenerational transfers and household structure: why do most Italian youths live with their parents?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20078, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
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  6. D'Amato, Marcello & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2002. "Assessing the Political Sustainability of Parametric Social Security Reforms: The Case of Italy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3439, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  9. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso, . "Early retirement," Working Papers 2003-03, FEDEA.
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  12. Galasso, Vincenzo, 2000. "The US Social Security: A Financial Appraisal For The Median Voter," CEPR Discussion Papers 2456, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. CASAMATTA, Georges & CREMER, Helmuth & PESTIEAU, Pierre, . "Political sustainability and the design of social insurance," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1449, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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  16. Peter Diamond, 2000. "Social Security Reform," 'Angelo Costa' Lectures Serie, SIPI Spa, issue Lect. I.
  17. Vincenzo Galasso, 1999. "The US Social Security System: What Does Political Sustainability Imply?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 698-730, July.
  18. CREMER, Helmuth & PESTIEAU, Pierre, . "Reforming our pension system: is it a demographic, financial or political problem?," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1468, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  19. Tito Boeri & Axel Boersch-Supan & Guido Tabellini, 2002. "Pension Reforms and the Opinions of European Citizens," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 396-401, May.
  20. Azariadis, Costas & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2002. "Fiscal Constitutions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 255-281, April.
  21. Browning, Edgar K, 1975. "Why the Social Insurance Budget Is Too Large in a Democracy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 373-88, September.
  22. Epple, Dennis & Romano, Richard E., 1996. "Ends against the middle: Determining public service provision when there are private alternatives," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 297-325, November.
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