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The maximum incremental social tolerable irreversible costs (MISTICs) and other benefits and costs of introducing transgenic maize in the EU-15

  • Wesseler, Justus
  • Scatasta, Sara
  • Nillesen, Eleonora

The decision to release a new transgenic crop variety for planting in the European Union (EU) is a decision under irreversibility and uncertainty. We use a real option model to assess the ex-ante incremental benefits and costs of the decision to release Bt maize and HT maize in the EU-15 member states. The analysis uses Eurostat data for modelling the benefits and costs of non-transgenic maize using partial equilibrium models. The farm-level benefits and costs of Bt maize and HT maize are derived from field trials conducted within the EU-funded ECOGEN project in combination with secondary data sources. Adoption curves, hurdle rates and Maximum Incremental Social Tolerable Irreversible Costs (MISTICs) are calculated at country level for selected EU-15 member states. In general, the results show that the MISTICs on a per capita level are very small confirming previous results calculated in values for the year 1995. The MISTICs per farm are much larger. This indicates a problem for decision makers.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 33229.

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Date of creation: 11 Apr 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:33229
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  11. Moschini, GianCarlo & Lapan, Harvey E. & Sobolevsky, Andrei, 2000. "Trading Technology As Well As Final Products: Roundup Ready Soybean and Welfare Effects in the Soybean Complex," Staff General Research Papers 5317, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
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  14. Scatasta, Sara & Wesseler, Justus & Demont, Matty, 2005. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty and the Adoption of Transgenic Crops: the Case of BT-Maize in France," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24758, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
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