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Multivariate structural time series models with dual cycles : implications for measurement of output gap and potential growth

  • Philippe Moës

    ()

    (National Bank of Belgium, Research Department)

Structural time series models applied to the factor inputs of a production function often lead to small output gaps and consequently to erratic measures of potential growth. We introduce a dual cycle model which is an extension to the multivariate trend plus cycle model with phase shifts à la Rünstler. The dual cycle model is a combination of two types of models: the trend plus cycle model and the cyclical trend model, where the cycle appears in the growth rate of a variable. This property enables hysteresis to be taken into account. Hysteresis is likely to show up in unemployment but it can also affect the capital stock due to the existence of long investment cycles. In the proposed model, hysteresis may affect all the factor inputs of the production function and phase shifts are extended to the dual cycles. Genuine measures of potential growth can be computed that are hysteresis-free and less prone to volatility. A complementary measure of the output gap that takes hysteresis into account can be derived

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Paper provided by National Bank of Belgium in its series Working Paper Research with number 136.

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Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbb:reswpp:200808-20
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  1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis in Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 2035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  5. Tommaso Proietti & Alberto Musso & Thomas Westermann, 2007. "Estimating potential output and the output gap for the euro area: a model-based production function approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 85-113, July.
  6. Neil Shephard & Jurgen Doornik & Siem Jan Koopman, 1998. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W06, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  7. Jaeger, Albert & Parkinson, Martin, 1990. "Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment: An Unobserved Components Approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 185-98.
  8. Adrian Pagan & Don Harding, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
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