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Demand-led versus supply-led growth transitions

  • Kevin S. Nell

This paper develops a saving/investment causality hypothesis to distinguish between demand- and supply-led growth transitions. The empirical application shows that India's growth transition in 1980 entailed a shift out of a suboptimal demand regime (1953-78) into an optimal demand regime (1980-2007). A key insight from the causality results is that the fiscal expansion of the 1980s initiated demand growth at the natural rate, while faster export growth in the post-1990 liberalization period relaxed the open economy solvency constraint on demand and played a crucial role in sustaining demand growth at its maximum potential rate.

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Article provided by M.E. Sharpe, Inc. in its journal Journal of Post Keynesian Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 713-748

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Handle: RePEc:mes:postke:v:34:y:2012:i:4:p:713-748
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://mesharpe.metapress.com/link.asp?target=journal&id=109348

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  1. Jakob Madsen & Shishir Saxena & James Ang, 2008. "The Indian Growth Miracle And Endogenous Growth," Monash Economics Working Papers 17/08, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  2. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
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  8. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-89, October.
  9. Montek S. Ahluwalia, 2002. "Economic Reforms in India Since 1991: Has Gradualism Worked?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 67-88, Summer.
  10. A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The Nature of Economic Growth," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2579.
  11. Nell, Kevin S. & Santos, Luis Delfim, 2008. "The Feldstein-Horioka hypothesis versus the long-run solvency constraint model: A critical assessment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 66-70, January.
  12. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
  13. T. W. Swan, 1956. "ECONOMIC GROWTH and CAPITAL ACCUMULATION," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 334-361, November.
  14. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997. "Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  15. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 1988. "Income Distribution, Market Size, and Industrialization," NBER Working Papers 2709, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
  17. A. P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Studies in Economics 1111, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  18. Khaled Hussein & A. P. Thirlwall, 1999. "Explaining differences in the domestic savings ratio across countries: A panel data study," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 31-52.
  19. Thomas I. Palley, 1994. "Competing Views Of The Money Supply Process: Theory And Evidence," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 67-88, 02.
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