IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/deveco/v179y2026ics0304387825002366.html

Intertemporal risk pooling in village economies

Author

Listed:
  • Fafchamps, Marcel
  • Shrinivas, Aditya

Abstract

We propose an improved theoretically-grounded method to test for efficient risk pooling that allows for intertemporal smoothing, non-homothetic consumption, and heterogeneous risk and time preferences. Applying this method to recent panel data from Indian villages generates important new insights while confirming some earlier findings. Year-to-year smoothing of consumption takes place much more at the village level than at the individual level and occurs primarily through financial assets. While there is proportionally more smoothing of food than non-food consumption, accounting for differences in income elasticities between the two statistically eliminates this difference, indicating that risk pooling does not distort consumption choices in our study area. Finally, we find that consumption smoothing is affected jointly by income and liquid assets, and that there is no excess sensitivity to earned income.

Suggested Citation

  • Fafchamps, Marcel & Shrinivas, Aditya, 2026. "Intertemporal risk pooling in village economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:179:y:2026:i:c:s0304387825002366
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103685
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387825002366
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103685?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. De Weerdt, Joachim & Dercon, Stefan, 2006. "Risk-sharing networks and insurance against illness," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 337-356, December.
    2. Youngjae Lim & Robert Townsend, 1998. "General Equilibrium Models of Financial Systems: Theory and Measurement in Village Economies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 59-118, January.
    3. Dirk Krueger & Egor Malkov & Fabrizio Perri, 2023. "How Do Households Respond to Income Shocks?," Staff Report 655, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Maurizio Mazzocco & Shiv Saini, 2012. "Testing Efficient Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Risk Preferences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 428-468, February.
    5. Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2011. "Heterogeneity and Tests of Risk Sharing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(5), pages 925-958.
    6. David Atkin & Benjamin Faber & Thibault Fally & Marco Gonzalez-Navarro, 2024. "Measuring Welfare and Inequality with Incomplete Price Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(1), pages 419-475.
    7. Ligon, Ethan, 2017. "Estimating household welfare from disaggregate expenditures," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt5gc4h1fm, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    8. Ethan Ligon & Jonathan P. Thomas & Tim Worrall, 2002. "Informal Insurance Arrangements with Limited Commitment: Theory and Evidence from Village Economies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(1), pages 209-244.
    9. Lei Pan, 2009. "Risk Pooling through Transfers in Rural Ethiopia," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(4), pages 809-835, July.
    10. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1993. "Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing, and the Accumulation of Durable Production Assets in Low-Income Countries: Investment in Bullocks in India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(2), pages 223-244, April.
    11. Daniel J. Lewis & Davide Melcangi & Laura Pilossoph, 2019. "Latent Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume," Staff Reports 902, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Martin Ravallion & Shubham Chaudhuri, 1997. "Risk and Insurance in Village India: Comment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 171-184, January.
    13. Fafchamps, Marcel, 1992. "Solidarity Networks in Preindustrial Societies: Rational Peasants with a Moral Economy," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 41(1), pages 147-174, October.
    14. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Stark, Oded, 1989. "Consumption Smoothing, Migration, and Marriage: Evidence from Rural India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(4), pages 905-926, August.
    15. Dercon, Stefan & De Weerdt, Joachim & Bold, Tessa & Pankhurst, Alula, 2006. "Group-based funeral insurance in Ethiopia and Tanzania," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 685-703, April.
    16. Joachim De Weerdt & Marcel Fafchamps, 2011. "Social Identity and the Formation of Health Insurance Networks," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(8), pages 1152-1177, June.
    17. Stephen P. Zeldes, 1989. "Optimal Consumption with Stochastic Income: Deviations from Certainty Equivalence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(2), pages 275-298.
    18. Ingvild Almås & Timothy K.M. Beatty & Thomas F. Crossley, 2018. "Lost in Translation: What do Engel Curves Tell us about the Cost of Living?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6886, CESifo.
    19. Paul Gertler & Jonathan Gruber, 2002. "Insuring Consumption Against Illness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 51-70, March.
    20. Krislert Samphantharak & Robert M. Townsend, 2018. "Risk and Return in Village Economies," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-40, February.
    21. Kazianga, Harounan & Udry, Christopher, 2006. "Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 413-446, April.
    22. Rosenzweig, Mark R & Binswanger, Hans P, 1993. "Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability of Agricultural Investments," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 56-78, January.
    23. Nina Buchmann & Pascaline Dupas & Roberta Ziparo, 2025. "The Good Wife? Reputation Dynamics and Financial Decision-Making inside the Household," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 115(2), pages 525-570, February.
    24. Paxson, Christina H, 1992. "Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 15-33, March.
    25. Anjini Kochar, 1999. "Smoothing Consumption by Smoothing Income: Hours-of-Work Responses to Idiosyncratic Agricultural Shocks in Rural India," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(1), pages 50-61, February.
    26. Ethan Ligon, 1998. "Risk Sharing and Information in Village Economies," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(4), pages 847-864.
    27. Thomas F. Crossley & Paul Fisher & Peter Levell & Hamish Low, 2025. "Eliciting the marginal propensity to consume in surveys," IFS Working Papers W25/25, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    28. Altonji, Joseph G & Hayashi, Fumio & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1992. "Is the Extended Family Altruistically Linked? Direct Tests Using Micro Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1177-1198, December.
    29. Cynthia Kinnan & Robert Townsend, 2012. "Kinship and Financial Networks, Formal Financial Access, and Risk Reduction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 289-293, May.
    30. Roberto Colarieti & Pierfrancesco Mei & Stefanie Stantcheva, 2024. "The How and Why of Household Reactions to Income Shocks," NBER Working Papers 32191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Townsend, Robert M, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-591, May.
    32. Orazio Attanasio & Anjini Kochar & Aprajit Mahajan & Vaishnavi Surendra, 2023. "Risk Sharing, Commitment Constraints and Self Help Groups," NBER Working Papers 31245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Coate, Stephen & Ravallion, Martin, 1993. "Reciprocity without commitment : Characterization and performance of informal insurance arrangements," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 1-24, February.
    34. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2020. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 144 Studies Say 'Probably Not'," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 97-122, January.
    35. Jesse M. Cunha, 2014. "Testing Paternalism: Cash versus In-Kind Transfers," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 195-230, April.
    36. Fafchamps, Marcel & Lund, Susan, 2003. "Risk-sharing networks in rural Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 261-287, August.
    37. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Lybbert, Travis J. & McPeak, John, 2012. "Risk and intertemporal substitution: Livestock portfolios and off-take among Kenyan pastoralists," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 415-426.
    39. Udry, Christopher, 1990. "Credit Markets in Northern Nigeria: Credit as Insurance in a Rural Economy," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 4(3), pages 251-269, September.
    40. Deaton, A., 1992. "Saving and Income Smoothing in Cote d'Ivoire," Papers 156, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Development Studies.
    41. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    42. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    43. Cochrane, John H, 1991. "A Simple Test of Consumption Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 957-976, October.
    44. Mace, Barbara J, 1991. "Full Insurance in the Presence of Aggregate Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(5), pages 928-956, October.
    45. Gero Carletto & Marco Tiberti & Alberto Zezza, 2022. "Measure for Measure: Comparing Survey Based Estimates of Income and Consumption for Rural Households [Obtaining Useful Data on Household Incomes from Surveys]," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 37(1), pages 1-38.
    46. Fafchamps, Marcel & Udry, Christopher & Czukas, Katherine, 1998. "Drought and saving in West Africa: are livestock a buffer stock?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 273-305, April.
    47. Stefan Dercon & Pramila Krishnan, 2000. "In Sickness and in Health: Risk Sharing within Households in Rural Ethiopia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(4), pages 688-727, August.
    48. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 1996. "Implications of Efficient Risk Sharing without Commitment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(4), pages 595-609.
    49. Pierre‐André Chiappori & Krislert Samphantharak & Sam Schulhofer‐Wohl & Robert M. Townsend, 2014. "Heterogeneity and risk sharing in village economies," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 5, pages 1-27, March.
    50. Mark Aguiar & Corina Boar & Mark Bils, 2019. "Who Are the Hand-to-Mouth?," 2019 Meeting Papers 525, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    51. Janet Currie & Firouz Gahvari, 2008. "Transfers in Cash and In-Kind: Theory Meets the Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 333-383, June.
    52. Mark Aguiar & Mark Bils & Corina Boar, 2020. "Who Are the Hand-to-Mouth?," Working Papers 2020-9, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    53. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-346, April.
    54. Geoffrey R. Dunbar & Arthur Lewbel & Krishna Pendakur, 2013. "Children's Resources in Collective Households: Identification, Estimation, and an Application to Child Poverty in Malawi," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 438-471, February.
    55. Peter D. Little & Kevin Smith & Barbara A. Cellarius & D. Layne Coppock & Christopher Barrett, 2001. "Avoiding Disaster: Diversification and Risk Management among East African Herders," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 32(3), pages 401-433, June.
    56. Aditya Shrinivas & Marcel Fafchamps, 2018. "Testing Efficient Risk Sharing with Heterogeneous Risk Preferences: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(10), pages 3104-3113, October.
    57. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Ian Preston, 2008. "Consumption Inequality and Partial Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1887-1921, December.
    58. Paxson, Christina H, 1993. "Consumption and Income Seasonality in Thailand," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 39-72, February.
    59. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Hoderlein, Stefan & Lewbel, Arthur & Linton, Oliver & Srisuma, Sorawoot, 2021. "Nonparametric Euler Equation Identification And Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(5), pages 851-891, October.
    60. Murphy, Kevin M & Topel, Robert H, 2002. "Estimation and Inference in Two-Step Econometric Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 88-97, January.
    61. Justine Hastings & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2018. "How Are SNAP Benefits Spent? Evidence from a Retail Panel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3493-3540, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcel Fafchamps & Aditya Shrinivas, 2022. "Risk Pooling and Precautionary Saving in Village Economies," NBER Working Papers 30128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Fafchamps, Marcel & Lund, Susan, 2003. "Risk-sharing networks in rural Philippines," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 261-287, August.
    3. Digvijay S. Negi & Christopher B. Barrett, 2024. "Consumption Smoothing, Commodity Markets, and Informal Transfers," Working Papers 116, Ashoka University, Department of Economics.
    4. Gaurav, Sarthak, 2015. "Are Rainfed Agricultural Households Insured? Evidence from Five Villages in Vidarbha, India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 719-736.
    5. Pierre Dubois, 2002. "Consommation, partage de risque et assurance informelle : développements théoriques et tests empiriques récents," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 78(1), pages 115-149.
    6. Kurosaki, Takashi & Fafchamps, Marcel, 2002. "Insurance market efficiency and crop choices in Pakistan," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 419-453, April.
    7. Morduch, Jonathan, 1999. "Between the State and the Market: Can Informal Insurance Patch the Safety Net?," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 187-207, August.
    8. Christian Cox & Akanksha Negi & Digvijay Negi, 2022. "Risk-Sharing Tests with Network Transaction Costs," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/22, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    9. Somville, Vincent & Vandewalle, Lore, 2023. "Access to banking, savings and consumption smoothing in rural India," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    10. Besley, Timothy, 1995. "Savings, credit and insurance," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 36, pages 2123-2207, Elsevier.
    11. Hasna Khemili & Mounir Belloumi, 2018. "Social Security and Fighting Poverty in Tunisia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-17, February.
    12. HwaJung Choi, 2007. "Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(2), pages 219-248, May.
    13. Joachim De Weerdt & Kalle Hirvonen, 2016. "Risk Sharing and Internal Migration," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(1), pages 63-86.
    14. Fafchamps, Marcel & Udry, Christopher & Czukas, Katherine, 1998. "Drought and saving in West Africa: are livestock a buffer stock?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 273-305, April.
    15. Yang Dean, 2008. "Coping with Disaster: The Impact of Hurricanes on International Financial Flows, 1970-2002," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-45, June.
    16. Stefan Dercon & Pramila Krishnan, 2000. "In Sickness and in Health: Risk Sharing within Households in Rural Ethiopia," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(4), pages 688-727, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:179:y:2026:i:c:s0304387825002366. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/devec .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.