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Citations for "On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective"

by Shmuel Kandel & Robert F. Stambaugh

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  1. M. Hashem Pesaran & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2009. "Optimality and Diversifiability of Mean Variance and Arbitrage Pricing Portfolios," CESifo Working Paper Series 2857, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Jessica A. Wachter & Missaka Warusawitharana, 2006. "Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?," 2006 Meeting Papers 22, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Cerrato, Mario & Crosby, John & Kaleem, Muhammad, 2011. "Measuring the Economic Significance of Structural Exchange Rate Models," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-62, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  4. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2006. "Testing for predictability in equity returns for European transition markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 56-78, March.
  5. Andreas Fagereng & Charles Gottlieb & Luigi Guiso, 2013. "Asset Market Participation and Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle," EIEF Working Papers Series 1326, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Oct 2013.
  6. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Michael W. Brandt, 2001. "Variable Selection for Portfolio Choice," NBER Working Papers 8127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Gary Chamberlain & Guido W. Imbens, 1996. "Nonparametric Applications of Bayesian Inference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Georges Prat, 2010. "Equity Risk Premium and Time Horizon : What do the U.S. Secular Data Say ?," EconomiX Working Papers 2010-22, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  9. João Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Eveidence from the euro area, the U.K and the U.S," NIPE Working Papers 21/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  10. Jurek, Jakub W & Viceira, Luis M, 2006. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 5773, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Marekwica, Marcel & Stamos, Michael Z., 2010. "Optimal life cycle portfolio choice with housing market cycles," CFS Working Paper Series 2010/21, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  12. Weller, Christian E. & Wenger, Jeffrey B., 2009. "Prudent investors: the asset allocation of public pension plans," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 501-525, October.
  13. Lubos Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2009. "Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1583-1628, 08.
  14. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk," Working Papers 2005-075, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  15. Ayelet Balsam & Shmuel Kandel & Ori Levy, . "Ex-Ante Real Rates and Inflation Risk Premiums: A Consumption-Based Approach," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 22-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  16. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  17. Guidolin, Massimo, 2003. "International asset prices and portfolio choices under Bayesian learning," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 383-437, December.
  18. John H. Cochrane, 1999. "Portfolio Advice for a Multifactor World," NBER Working Papers 7170, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2011. "Inflation hedging portfolios in different regimes," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 139-163 Bank for International Settlements.
  20. Hanna, J. Douglas & Ready, Mark J., 2005. "Profitable predictability in the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 463-505, December.
  21. Angelos Kanas, 2009. "The relation between the equity risk premium and the bond maturity premium in the UK: 1900–2006," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 111-127, April.
  22. Xu, Yexiao, 2004. "Small levels of predictability and large economic gains," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-275, March.
  23. Guidolin, Massimo & Hyde, Stuart, 2012. "Can VAR models capture regime shifts in asset returns? A long-horizon strategic asset allocation perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 695-716.
  24. Xia, Yihong, 2000. "Learning About Predictability: The Effects of Parameter Uncertainty on Dynamic Asset Allocation," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt3167f8mz, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  25. Hui Chen & Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, . "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Ambiguous Return Predictability," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
  26. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrew F. Siegel, 2006. "Testing Portfolio Efficiency with Conditioning Information," NBER Working Papers 12098, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Biais, Bruno & Bossaerts, Peter & Spatt, Chester, 2009. "Equilibrium Asset Pricing and Portofolio Choice Under Asymmetric Information," TSE Working Papers 09-018, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  28. Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1414, 08.
  29. Doron Avramov & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Bayesian Portfolio Analysis," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 25-47, December.
  30. Anthony W. Lynch, 2000. "Portfolio Choice and Equity Characteristics: Characterizing the Hedging Demands Induced by Return Predictability," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-073, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  31. Michael E. Drew & Madhu Veeraraghavan, 2000. "Multifactor Models are Alive and Well," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 083, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  32. Marco Aiolfi & Carlo Ambrogio Favero, . "Model Uncertainty, Thick Modelling and the predictability of Stock Returns," Working Papers 221, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  33. Pesaran, M.H. & Zaffaroni, P., 2008. "Optimal Asset Allocation with Factor Models for Large Portfolios," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0813, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  34. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
  35. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan, 2011. "Predictability of stock returns and asset allocation under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 60-78, September.
  36. Rajeev H. Dehejia, 2002. "Program evaluation as a decision problem," Discussion Papers 0102-23, Columbia University, Department of Economics.
  37. Markus Leippold & Fabio Trojani & Paolo Vanini, 2008. "Learning and Asset Prices Under Ambiguous Information," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2565-2597, November.
  38. Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Market efficiency today," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/01, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  39. Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Predictive Regressions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Kogan, Leonid & Uppal, Raman, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Optimal Portfolio Policies in Partial and General Equilibrium Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 3306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  41. Kent Daniel & Sheridan Titman, 2000. "Market Efficiency in an Irrational World," NBER Working Papers 7489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  42. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2005. "Rational Inattention: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5261, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  43. Tu, Jun & Zhou, Guofu, 2010. "Incorporating Economic Objectives into Bayesian Priors: Portfolio Choice under Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(04), pages 959-986, August.
  44. Avramov, Doron & Chordia, Tarun, 2006. "Predicting stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 387-415, November.
  45. Massa, Massimo & Simonov, Andrei, 2005. "Is learning a dimension of risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2605-2632, October.
  46. Ayadi, Mohamed A. & Kryzanowski, Lawrence, 2005. "Portfolio performance measurement using APM-free kernel models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 623-659, March.
  47. Michael W. Brandt & Amit Goyal & Pedro Santa-Clara & Jonathan R. Stroud, 2005. "A Simulation Approach to Dynamic Portfolio Choice with an Application to Learning About Return Predictability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 831-873.
  48. Shanken, Jay & Tamayo, Ane, 2012. "Payout yield, risk, and mispricing: A Bayesian analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-152.
  49. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2010. "Ex Post Portfolio Performance with Predictable Skewness and Kurtosis," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 191, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  50. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2002. "Market Timing and Return Prediction under Model Instability," FMG Discussion Papers dp412, Financial Markets Group.
  51. Klaas P. Baks, 2001. "Should Investors Avoid All Actively Managed Mutual Funds? A Study in Bayesian Performance Evaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 45-85, 02.
  52. Wayne E. Ferson & Campbell R. Harvey, 1999. "Economic, Financial, and Fundamental Global Risk In and Out of the EMU," NBER Working Papers 6967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  53. David Rey, 2005. "Market Timing And Model Uncertainty: An Exploratory Study For The Swiss Stock Market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 239-260, October.
  54. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2006. "Investing for the long-run in European real estate," Working Papers 2006-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  55. Michael E. Drew & Madhu Veeraraghavan, 2001. "On the Value Premium in Malaysia," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 092, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  56. Avramov, Doron & Wermers, Russ, 2005. "Investing in mutual funds when returns are predictable," CFR Working Papers 05-13, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  57. Chu, Ba & Knight, John & Satchell, Stephen, 2011. "Large deviations theorems for optimal investment problems with large portfolios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 211(3), pages 533-555, June.
  58. Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2013. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: implications for portfolio allocation," BIS Working Papers 420, Bank for International Settlements.
  59. Avramov, Doron & Wermers, Russ, 2006. "Investing in mutual funds when returns are predictable," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 339-377, August.
  60. Andrew J. Patton, 2004. "On the Out-of-Sample Importance of Skewness and Asymmetric Dependence for Asset Allocation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 130-168.
  61. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
  62. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
  63. Sousa, João & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2013. "Asset returns under model uncertainty: evidence from the euro area, the U.S. and the U.K," Working Paper Series 1575, European Central Bank.
  64. Devraj Basu & Chi-Hsiou Hung & Roel Oomen & Alexander Stremme, 2006. "When to Pick the Losers: Do Sentiment Indicators Improve Dynamic Asset Allocation?," Working Papers wpn06-13, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  65. Fletcher, Jonathan & Hillier, Joe, 2005. "An examination of linear factor models in country equity asset allocation strategies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 808-823, September.
  66. Gomes, Francisco J., 2007. "Exploiting short-run predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1427-1440, May.
  67. ROCKINGER, Michael & JONDEAU, Eric, 2001. "Portfolio allocation in transition economies," Les Cahiers de Recherche 740, HEC Paris.
  68. Bielecki, Tomasz R. & Pliska, Stanley R. & Sherris, Michael, 2000. "Risk sensitive asset allocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1145-1177, July.
  69. Tomek Katzur & Laura Spierdijk, 2013. "Stock returns and inflation risk: economic versus statistical evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(13), pages 1123-1136, July.
  70. Goh, Jeremy C. & Jiang, Fuwei & Tu, Jun & Wang, Yuchen, 2013. "Can US economic variables predict the Chinese stock market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 69-87.
  71. Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Timmermann, Allan, 2012. "Do return prediction models add economic value?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2974-2987.
  72. Parker, Simon C., 2007. "Entrepreneurial learning and the existence of credit markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 37-46, January.
  73. Brière, Marie & Signori, Ombretta, 2013. "Hedging inflation risk in a developing economy: The case of Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 209-222.
  74. Francisco Peñaranda, 2003. "Evaluation of joint density forecasts of stock and bond returns: predictability and parameter uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24857, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  75. Pettenuzzo, Davide & Timmermann, Allan G & Valkanov, Rossen, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns under Economic Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 9377, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  76. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Managing international portfolios with small capitalization stocks," Working Papers 2007-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  77. repec:dgr:uvatin:2012053 is not listed on IDEAS
  78. John H. Cochrane, 2006. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  79. Davide Pettenuzzo & Allan G. Timmermann & Rossen I. Valkanov, 2008. "Return Predictability under Equilibrium Constraints on the Equity Premium," Working Papers 37, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  80. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Jun Liu, 2000. "Why Stocks May Disappoint," NBER Working Papers 7783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  81. Brennan, Michael J. & Xia, Yihong, 2001. "Stock price volatility and equity premium," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 249-283, April.
  82. Jagannathan, Murali & Stephens, Clifford P. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2000. "Financial flexibility and the choice between dividends and stock repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 355-384, September.
  83. Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Comparing Asset Pricing Models: An Investment Perspective," CRSP working papers 497, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  84. Kevin L. Reffett & Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Evaluating Asset Pricing Implications of DSGE Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1630, Econometric Society.
  85. Francesco Ravazzolo & Marco J. Lombardi, 2012. "Oil price density forecasts: Exploring the linkages with stock markets," Working Papers 0008, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  86. Brière, Marie & Signori, Ombretta, 2011. "Inflation-hedging Portfolios in Different Regimes," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7744, Paris Dauphine University.
  87. Doron Avramov, . "Stock-Return Predictability and Model Uncertainty," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 12-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  88. Francisco Penaranda, 2007. "Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  89. Larry Epstein & Martin Schneider, 2002. "Learning Under Ambiguity," RCER Working Papers 497, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER), revised Mar 2005.
  90. Christopher S. Jones & Jay Shanken, 2002. "Mutual Fund Performance with Learning Across Funds," NBER Working Papers 9392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  91. Francisco Peñaranda, 2004. "Are Vector Autoregressions And Accurate Model For Dynamic Asset Allocation?," Working Papers wp2004_0419, CEMFI.
  92. Stephen E. Satchell & Shaun A. Bond, 2004. "Asymmetry, Loss Aversion and Forecasting," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 160, Econometric Society.
  93. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  94. Wayne E. Ferson & Andrea Heuson & Tie Su, 2004. "Weak and Semi-Strong Form Stock Return Predictability, Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10689, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  95. Nocetti, Diego, 2006. "Markowitz meets Kahneman: Portfolio selection under divided attention," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 106-113, June.
  96. Martin B. Haugh & Leonid Kogan & Jiang Wang, 2003. "Evaluating Portfolio Policies: A Duality Approach," NBER Working Papers 9861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  97. Jay Shanken & Ane Tamayo, 2001. "Risk, Mispricing, and Asset Allocation: Conditioning on Dividend Yield," NBER Working Papers 8666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  98. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2011. "Forecasting the Equity Risk Premium: The Role of Technical Indicators," Working Papers CoFie-02-2011, Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics.
  99. Devraj Basu & Roel Oomen & Alexander Stremme, 2006. "International Diversification and Return Predictability: Optimal Dynamic Asset Allocation," Working Papers wpn06-14, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  100. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 14646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  101. Tomohiro Ando, 2012. "Bayesian portfolio selection under a multifactor asset return model with predictive model selection," Global Business and Economics Review, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 14(1/2), pages 77-101.
  102. Ji Jung Im & Hyun Soo Lim & Sung sub Choi & Denis Nikitin, 2007. "Portfolio Selection under Parameter Uncertainty using a Predictive Distribution," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 8(2), pages 305-312, November.
  103. Ravazzolo, F. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Paap, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2006. "Bayesian Model Averaging in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2006-33, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  104. Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.
  105. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2005. "Return Predictability and the Implied Intertemporal Hedging Demands for Stocks and Bonds: International Evidence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 329, Society for Computational Economics.
  106. Yao, Jing & Li, Duan, 2013. "Prospect theory and trading patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2793-2805.
  107. Kalotay, Egon & Gray, Philip & Sin, Samantha, 2007. "Consumer expectations and short-horizon return predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3102-3124, October.
  108. Signori, Ombretta & Brière, Marie, 2012. "Inflation-Hedging Portfolios : Economic Regimes Matter," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/9296, Paris Dauphine University.
  109. Devraj Basu & Roel Oomen & Alexander Stremme, 2006. "Exploiting the Informational Content of the Linkages Between Spot and Derivatives Markets," Working Papers wpn06-12, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  110. Brennan, Michael, 1997. "The Role of Learning in Dynamic Portfolio Decisionsâ€," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt8js8x85g, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  111. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee, 2006. "Investing Under Model Uncertainty: Decision Based Evaluation of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Forecasts in the US, UK and Japan," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0616, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  112. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Transaction costs and predictability: some utility cost calculations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 47-78, April.
  113. Michael E. Drew & Madhu Veeraraghavan, 2001. "Asset Pricing In The Asian Region," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 094, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.