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Intraday Time-series Momentum: Evidence from China

Author

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  • Jin, Muzhao
  • Kearney, Fearghal
  • Li, Youwei
  • Yang, Yung Chiang

Abstract

This study conducts an investigation of intraday time-series momentum across four Chinese commodity futures contracts: copper, steel, soybean, and soybean meal. Our results indicate that the first half-hour return positively predicts the last half-hour return across all four futures. Furthermore, in metals markets, we find that first trading sessions with high volume or volatility are associated with the strongest intraday time-series momentum dynamics. Based on this, we propose an intraday momentum informed trading strategy that earns a return in excess of standard always long and buy-and-hold benchmarks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin, Muzhao & Kearney, Fearghal & Li, Youwei & Yang, Yung Chiang, 2019. "Intraday Time-series Momentum: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 97134, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:97134
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Lijian Wei & Lei Shi, 2020. "Investor Sentiment in an Artificial Limit Order Market," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-10, June.
    3. Sommerfeldt, Nelson & Pearce, Joshua M., 2023. "Can grid-tied solar photovoltaics lead to residential heating electrification? A techno-economic case study in the midwestern U.S," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    4. Ham, Hyuna & Ryu, Doojin & Webb, Robert I., 2022. "The effects of overnight events on daytime trading sessions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Liu, Zhenya & Lu, Shanglin & Wang, Shixuan, 2021. "Asymmetry, tail risk and time series momentum," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    6. Liu, Zhenya & Lu, Shanglin & Li, Bo & Wang, Shixuan, 2023. "Time series momentum and reversal: Intraday information from realized semivariance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 54-77.
    7. Wen, Zhuzhu & Bouri, Elie & Xu, Yahua & Zhao, Yang, 2022. "Intraday return predictability in the cryptocurrency markets: Momentum, reversal, or both," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Zhang, Wei & Wang, Pengfei & Li, Yi, 2021. "Bond intraday momentum," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    9. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2021. "Intraday return predictability in China’s crude oil futures market: New evidence from a unique trading mechanism," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 209-219.
    10. Simarjeet Singh & Nidhi Walia & Sivagandhi Saravanan & Preeti Jain & Avtar Singh & Jinesh jain, 2021. "Mapping the scientific research on alternative momentum investing: a bibliometric analysis," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(4), pages 619-636, April.
    11. Huang, Hong-Gia & Tsai, Wei-Che & Weng, Pei-Shih & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2023. "Intraday momentum in the VIX futures market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    12. Jakub Kubiczek & Marcin Tuszkiewicz, 2022. "Intraday Patterns of Liquidity on the Warsaw Stock Exchange before and after the Outbreak of the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Intraday Predictability; Time-Series; Momentum;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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