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Small levels of predictability and large economic gains

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  • Xu, Yexiao
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 11 (2004)
    Issue (Month): 2 (March)
    Pages: 247-275

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:11:y:2004:i:2:p:247-275

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

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    1. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1991. "An Econometric Analysis of Nonsynchronous Trading," NBER Working Papers 2960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Campbell, John, 1987. "Stock Returns and the Term Structure," Scholarly Articles 3207699, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Culter, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "Speculative Dynamics," Working papers 544, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    5. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1991. "When are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," NBER Working Papers 2977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. McDonald, James B. & Xu, Yexiao J., 1995. "A generalization of the beta distribution with applications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 427-428, October.
    7. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December.
    8. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-36, June.
    9. Campbell, John, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3207695, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    10. Conrad, Jennifer & Kaul, Gautam, 1988. "Time-Variation in Expected Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(4), pages 409-25, October.
    11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    12. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    13. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1975. "Speculation and Equilibrium: Information, Risk, and Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 519-42, November.
    14. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, 02.
    15. Kaul, Gautam & Nimalendran, M., 1990. "Price reversals *1: Bid-ask errors or market overreaction?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 67-93.
    16. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
    17. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    18. Shmuel Kandel & Robert F. Stambaugh, 1995. "On the Predictability of Stock Returns: An Asset-Allocation Perspective," NBER Working Papers 4997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Kirby, Chris, 1997. "Measuring the Predictable Variation in Stock and Bond Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 579-630.
    20. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
    21. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. " Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-617, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Tom Engsted, 2009. "Statistical vs. Economic Significance in Economics and Econometrics: Further comments on McCloskey & Ziliak," CREATES Research Papers 2009-17, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    2. Khurshid Kiani, 2010. "Predictable Signals in Excess Returns: Evidence from Non-Gaussian State Space Models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1217-1232.
    3. Christopher J. Neely & David E. Rapach & Jun Tu & Guofu Zhou, 2010. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction: economic fundamentals vs. moving-average rules," Working Papers 2010-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. KIANI, Khurshid M., 2007. "Determination Of Volatility And Mean Returns: An Evidence From An Emerging Stock Market," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1), pages 103-118.
    5. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2006. "Testing for predictability in equity returns for European transition markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 56-78, March.
    6. Barras, Laurent, 2007. "International conditional asset allocation under specification uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 443-464, September.
    7. Bryan Stanhouse & Duane Stock, 2008. "Managing the risk of loan prepayments and the optimal structure of short term lending rates," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 197-215, March.
    8. McPherson, Matthew Q. & Palardy, Joseph, 2007. "Are international stock returns predictable?: An examination of linear and non-linear predictability using generalized spectral tests," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 452-464, December.
    9. Yufeng Han, 2010. "On the Economic Value of Return Predictability," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 1-33, May.

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