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Investing Under Model Uncertainty: Decision Based Evaluation of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Forecasts in the US, UK and Japan

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Author Info
Anthony Garratt (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck)
Kevin Lee

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Abstract

We evaluate the forecast performance of a range of theory-based and atheoretical models explaining exchange rates and interest rates in US, UK and Japan. The decision-making environment is fully described for an investor who optimally allocates portfolio shares to domestic and foreign assets. Methods necessary to compute and use forecasts in this context are proposed, including the means of combining density forecasts to deal with model uncertainty. An out-of-sample evaluation exercise covering the 1990’s is described, comparing statistical criteria with decision-based criteria. The theory-based models are found to perform relatively well when their forecasts are judged by their economic value.

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File URL: http://www.ems.bbk.ac.uk/research/wp/PDF/BWPEF0616.pdf
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File Function: First version, 2006
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 0616.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:0616

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Related research
Keywords: Model Averaging; Buy and Hold; Exchange rate and interest rate forecasts.;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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  3. Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1011, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
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