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The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach

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Cited by:

  1. Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Footloose or Evolving Relationship?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 786-830, June.
  2. Coakley, Jerry & Marzano, Michele & Nankervis, John, 2016. "How profitable are FX technical trading rules?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 273-282.
  3. Ülkü, Numan & Prodan, Eugeniu, 2013. "Drivers of technical trend-following rules' profitability in world stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 214-229.
  4. Eduardo Lima & Benjamin Tabak, 2009. "Tests of Random Walk: A Comparison of Bootstrap Approaches," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 365-382, November.
  5. Schmidt, Robert & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2004. "Sterilized Foreign Exchange Market Interventions in a Chartist-Fundamentalist Exchange Rate Model," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 50, University of Würzburg, Department of Economics.
  6. Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2012. "Currency momentum strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 660-684.
  7. Poitras, Geoffrey, 1998. "TED Tandems: Arbitrage Restrictions and the US Treasury Bill/Eurodollar Futures Spread," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 255-276.
  8. Ibrahim ONOUR, 2018. "Technical Trading Rules And Trading Signals In The Black Market For Foreign Exchange In Sudan," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 25-31.
  9. Marco Corazza & A. G. Malliaris, 2005. "Multi-Fractality in Foreign Currency Markets," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays, chapter 11, pages 151-184, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  10. Wong, Michael Chak-sham & Cheung, Yan-Leung, 1999. "The practice of investment management in Hong Kong: market forecasting and stock selection," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 451-465, August.
  11. Bell, Peter N, 2013. "New Testing Procedures to Assess Market Efficiency with Trading Rules," MPRA Paper 46701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
  13. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "On the higher-order moment interdependence of stock and commodity markets: A wavelet coherence analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 135-151.
  14. Ding, Wenjie & Mazouz, Khelifa & Wang, Qingwei, 2021. "Volatility timing, sentiment, and the short-term profitability of VIX-based cross-sectional trading strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 42-56.
  15. Stephan Schulmeister, 2001. "Profitability and Price Effects of Technical Currency Trading," WIFO Working Papers 140, WIFO.
  16. Juann H. Hung, 1995. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Research Paper 9515, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  17. Pereira, Robert, 1999. "Forecasting Ability But No Profitability: An Empirical Evaluation of Genetic Algorithm-optimised Technical Trading Rules," MPRA Paper 9055, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  18. Petr Zeman, 2014. "Technical Trading and Testing of Intra-day Market Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market," Acta Universitatis Bohemiae Meridionales, University of South Bohemia in Ceske Budejovice, vol. 17(1), pages 3-13.
  19. Jackson, Antony & Ladley, Daniel, 2016. "Market ecologies: The effect of information on the interaction and profitability of technical trading strategies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 270-280.
  20. Neely, Christopher J., 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading profits," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 211-232, October.
  21. Hung, Juann H, 1997. "Intervention strategies and exchange rate volatility: a noise trading perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 779-793, September.
  22. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Time-frequency dependence and connectedness among global oil markets: Fresh evidence from higher-order moment perspective," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
  23. Elliott, Graham & Ito, Takatoshi, 1999. "Heterogeneous expectations and tests of efficiency in the yen/dollar forward exchange rate market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 435-456, April.
  24. Bekiros, Stelios D., 2015. "Heuristic learning in intraday trading under uncertainty," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 34-49.
  25. Taylor, Mark & Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Wang, Zigan, 2020. "The Out-of-Sample Performance of Carry Trades," CEPR Discussion Papers 15052, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Ryan Sullivan & Allan Timmermann & Halbert White, 1999. "Data‐Snooping, Technical Trading Rule Performance, and the Bootstrap," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1647-1691, October.
  27. Siroos Khademalomoom & Paresh Kumar Narayan & Susan Sunila Sharma, 2019. "Higher Moments and Exchange Rate Behavior," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 201-229, February.
  28. L. Menkhoff & M. Schlumberger, 1995. "Persistent profitability of technical analysis on foreign exchange markets?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 48(193), pages 189-215.
  29. Batchelor, Roy & Kwan, Tai Yeong, 2007. "Judgemental bootstrapping of technical traders in the bond market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 427-445.
  30. Ana María Abarca G. & Felipe Alarcón G. & Pablo Pincheira B. & Jorge Selaive C., 2007. "Nominal Exchange Rate in Chile: Predictions based on technical analysis," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(2), pages 57-80, August.
  31. Muhammad A. Cheema & Gilbert V. Nartea & Yimei Man, 2018. "Cross‐Sectional and Time Series Momentum Returns and Market States," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 705-715, December.
  32. Wang, Changyun, 2004. "Futures trading activity and predictable foreign exchange market movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1023-1041, May.
  33. Bekiros, Stelios & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "The multiscale causal dynamics of foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 282-305.
  34. Park, Cheol-Ho & Irwin, Scott H., 2004. "The Profitability Of Technical Trading Rules In Us Futures Markets: A Data Snooping Free Test," 2004 Conference, April 19-20, 2004, St. Louis, Missouri 19011, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
  35. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 2001. "Technical analysis and central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 949-970, December.
  36. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006. "The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September.
  37. Vlad Pavlov & Stan Hurn, 2009. "Testing the Profitability of Technical Analysis as a Portfolio Selection Strategy," NCER Working Paper Series 52, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  38. Reitz, Stefan, 2006. "On the predictive content of technical analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 121-137, August.
  39. Wing-Keung Wong & Boon-Kiat Chew & Douglas Sikorsk, 2001. "Can the Forecasts Generated from E/P Ratio and Bond Yield be Used to Beat Stock Markets?," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 5(1), pages 59-86, March.
  40. Stephan Schulmeister, 2012. "Technical Trading and Commodity Price Fluctuations," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 45238, February.
  41. Martin, Anna D., 2001. "Technical trading rules in the spot foreign exchange markets of developing countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 59-68, February.
  42. Stephan Schulmeister, 2000. "Technical Analysis and Exchange Rate Dynamics," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25857, February.
  43. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1999. "Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 383-392, October.
  44. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Profitability of technical stock trading: Has it moved from daily to intraday data?," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 18(4), pages 190-201, October.
  45. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Potì, Valerio & Levich, Richard M. & Pattitoni, Pierpaolo & Cucurachi, Paolo, 2014. "Predictability, trading rule profitability and learning in currency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 117-129.
  47. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
  48. Amna Nazeer & Wu Jun & Khuram Shafi & Liu Yan Yan, 2015. "Fluctuation of Yuan/Dollar: Time Series Co Integration Analysis," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 317-326, January.
  49. Meredith Beechey & David Gruen & James Vickery, 2000. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis: A Survey," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2000-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  50. Sudarshan Kumar & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma & Vineet Virmani, 2023. "Harvesting the volatility smile in a large emerging market: A Dynamic Nelson–Siegel approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1615-1644, November.
  51. Julián Andrada-Félix & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, 2008. "Improving moving average trading rules with boosting and statistical learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(5), pages 433-449.
  52. Lubnau, Thorben & Todorova, Neda, 2015. "Trading on mean-reversion in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 312-319.
  53. Adrián Fernández-P�rez & Fernando Fernández-Rodr�guez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2012. "Detecting trends in the foreign exchange markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(5), pages 493-503, March.
  54. Francisco Ledesma Rodríguez & Manuel Navarro Ibáñez & Jorge Pérez Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 2008. "The Credibility of the European monetary System:A Review," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 31(86), pages 005-034, Mayo-Agos.
  55. P. Lequeux & E. Acar, 1998. "A dynamic index for managed currencies funds using CME currency contracts," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 311-330.
  56. Tajaddini, Reza & Crack, Timothy Falcon, 2012. "Do momentum-based trading strategies work in emerging currency markets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 521-537.
  57. Guanqing Liu, 2019. "Technical Trading Behaviour: Evidence from Chinese Rebar Futures Market," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(2), pages 669-704, August.
  58. Po-Hsuan Hsu & Chung-Ming Kuan, 2004. "Re-Examining the Profitability of Technical Analysis with White’s Reality Check," IEAS Working Paper : academic research 04-A003, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan.
  59. Noureddine Kouaissah & Amin Hocine, 2021. "Forecasting systemic risk in portfolio selection: The role of technical trading rules," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 708-729, July.
  60. Christopher J. Neely & Paul A. Weller, 2011. "Technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2011-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  61. Vitale, Paolo, 2000. "Speculative noise trading and manipulation in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 689-712, October.
  62. Diks, Cees & van der Weide, Roy, 2005. "Herding, a-synchronous updating and heterogeneity in memory in a CBS," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 741-763, April.
  63. de Zwart, Gerben & Markwat, Thijs & Swinkels, Laurens & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "The economic value of fundamental and technical information in emerging currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 581-604, June.
  64. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 1999. "Technical trading rules in the European Monetary System," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 429-458.
  65. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
  66. Dicle, Mehmet F. & Levendis, John, 2020. "Historic risk and implied volatility," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  67. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
  68. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
  69. Charlie X. Cai & Qi Zhang, 2016. "High†Frequency Exchange Rate Forecasting," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(1), pages 120-141, January.
  70. Camillo Lento, 2009. "Combined signal approach: evidence from the Asian-Pacific equity markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 749-753.
  71. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
  72. Tweneboah Senzu, Emmanuel, 2020. "Modern currency exchange rate behaviour and proposed trend-like forecasting model," MPRA Paper 99933, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  73. Stefan Reitz & Mark Taylor, 2012. "FX intervention in the Yen-US dollar market: a coordination channel perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 111-128, June.
  74. Taylor, Mark & Hsu, Po-Hsuan, 2014. "Forty Years, Thirty Currencies and 21,000 Trading Rules: A Large-scale, Data-Snooping Robust Analysis of Technical Trading in t," CEPR Discussion Papers 10018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  75. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "Technical Analysis in Foreign Exchange - The Workhorse Gains Further Ground," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-278, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  76. Nikolaos Eriotis & Dimitrios Vasiliou & Spyros Papathanasiou, 2006. "Testing Technical Anomalies in Athens Stock Exchange (ASE)," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 75-90.
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  78. Shynkevich, Andrei, 2012. "Performance of technical analysis in growth and small cap segments of the US equity market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 193-208.
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  81. F. FernAndez-RodrIguez & S. Sosvilla-Rivero & J. Andrada-FElix, 2003. "Technical analysis in foreign exchange markets: evidence from the EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 113-122.
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  89. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada-Félix, "undated". "Technical Analysis in Foreign Exchange Markets: Linear Versus Nonlinear Trading Rules," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 00-02, FEDEA.
  90. Jordà, Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2012. "The carry trade and fundamentals: Nothing to fear but FEER itself," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 74-90.
  91. Neely, C. J. & Weller, P. A., 2003. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-237, April.
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  97. Lee, Chun I. & Pan, Ming-Shiun & Liu, Y. Angela, 2001. "On market efficiency of Asian foreign exchange rates: evidence from a joint variance ratio test and technical trading rules," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 199-214, June.
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  129. Stephan Schulmeister, 2009. "Trading Practices and Price Dynamics in Commodity Markets and the Stabilising Effects of a Transaction Tax," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 34919, February.
  130. Lee, Chun I & Gleason, Kimberly C. & Mathur, Ike, 2001. "Trading rule profits in Latin American currency spot rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 135-156.
  131. Sapp, Stephen, 2004. "Are all Central Bank interventions created equal? An empirical investigation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 443-474, March.
  132. Gencay, Ramazan, 1999. "Linear, non-linear and essential foreign exchange rate prediction with simple technical trading rules," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 91-107, February.
  133. Adam Karp & Gary Van Vuuren, 2019. "Investment Implications Of The Fractal Market Hypothesis," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(01), pages 1-27, March.
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