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If you’re so smart: John Maynard Keynes and currency speculation in the interwar years

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  • Accominotti, Olivier
  • Chambers, David

Abstract

This article explores the risks and returns to currency speculation during the 1920s and 1930s. We study the performance of two well-known technical trading strategies (carry and momentum) and compare them with that of a fundamentals-based trader: John Maynard Keynes. Technical strategies were highly profitable during the 1920s and even outperformed Keynes. In the 1930s, however, both technical strategies and Keynes performed relatively poorly. While our results reveal the existence of profitable opportunities for currency traders in the interwar years, they suggest that such profits were necessary compensation for enduring the substantial risks that all strategies entailed.

Suggested Citation

  • Accominotti, Olivier & Chambers, David, 2016. "If you’re so smart: John Maynard Keynes and currency speculation in the interwar years," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64722, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:64722
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Carlo Cristiano & Maria Cristina Marcuzzo & Eleonora Sanfilippo, 2018. "Taming the great depression: Keynes’s personal investments in the US stock market, 1931–1939," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(1), pages 13-40, April.
    2. Marcuzzo, Maria Cristina & Sanfilippo, Eleonora, 2022. "Keynes's personal investments in the London Stock Exchange and his views on the transformation of the British economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 512-526.
    3. David Chambers & Elroy Dimson & Christophe Spaenjers, 0. "Art as an Asset: Evidence from Keynes the Collector," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 490-520.
    4. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H. & Neumayer, Andreas, 2018. "The persistence of ownership inequality. Investors on the German stock exchanges, 1869 – 1945," Working Papers 8, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    5. David Chambers & Rasheed Saleuddin, 2020. "Commodity option pricing efficiency before Black, Scholes, and Merton," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(2), pages 540-564, May.
    6. Stephan Schulmeister, 2019. "Keynes und die Finanzmärkte. Auf halbem Weg vom "homo oeconomicus" zum "homo humanus"," WIFO Working Papers 588, WIFO.
    7. Baltussen, Guido & Swinkels, Laurens & Van Vliet, Pim, 2021. "Global factor premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1128-1154.
    8. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H. & Neumayer, Andreas, 2018. "The persistence of ownership inequality: Investors on the German stock exchanges, 1869-1945," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 20-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    carry; momentum; foreign exchange; currency markets; currency crises;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N24 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - Europe: 1913-

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