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Keynes the Stock Market Investor: A Quantitative Analysis

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  • Chambers, David
  • Dimson, Elroy
  • Foo, Justin

Abstract

The consensus view of the influential economist John Maynard Keynes is that he was a stellar investor. We provide an extensive quantitative appraisal of his performance over a quarter century and present detailed analysis of his archived trading records. His top-down approach initially generated disappointing returns with no evidence of any market-timing ability. However, from the early 1930s his performance improved as he evolved into a bottom-up stock picker with substantial active risk and pronounced size and value tilts. Our reconstruction of Keynes’s stock trading provides a unique record of realized performance and sheds light on how equity investing developed historically.

Suggested Citation

  • Chambers, David & Dimson, Elroy & Foo, Justin, 2015. "Keynes the Stock Market Investor: A Quantitative Analysis," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 843-868, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:50:y:2015:i:04:p:843-868_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Accominotti, Olivier & Chambers, David, 2016. "If You're So Smart: John Maynard Keynes and Currency Speculation in the Interwar Years," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 76(2), pages 342-386, June.
    2. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H. & Neumayer, Andreas, 2018. "The persistence of ownership inequality. Investors on the German stock exchanges, 1869 – 1945," Working Papers 8, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    3. Carlo Cristiano & Maria Cristina Marcuzzo & Eleonora Sanfilippo, 2018. "Taming the great depression: Keynes’s personal investments in the US stock market, 1931–1939," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(1), pages 13-40, April.
    4. Marcuzzo, Maria Cristina & Sanfilippo, Eleonora, 2022. "Keynes's personal investments in the London Stock Exchange and his views on the transformation of the British economy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 512-526.
    5. Stephan Schulmeister, 2019. "Keynes und die Finanzmärkte. Auf halbem Weg vom "homo oeconomicus" zum "homo humanus"," WIFO Working Papers 588, WIFO.
    6. Chambers, David, 2019. "Commodity Option Pricing Efficiency before Black Scholes Merton," CEPR Discussion Papers 13975, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. David Chambers & Rasheed Saleuddin, 2020. "Commodity option pricing efficiency before Black, Scholes, and Merton," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(2), pages 540-564, May.
    8. David A Bogle & Christopher Coyle & John D Turner, 2022. "Capital market development over the long run: the portfolios of UK life assurers over two centuries [Corporate ownership and control in Victorian Britain]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(3), pages 370-398.
    9. Dimitris P. Sotiropoulos & Janette Rutterford & Carolyn Keber, 2020. "UK investment trust portfolio strategies before the First World War," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 73(3), pages 785-814, August.
    10. Bogle, David A. & Coyle, Christopher & Turner, John D., 2020. "Capital market development over the long run: The portfolios of UK life assurers over two centuries," QUCEH Working Paper Series 2020-09, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's University Centre for Economic History.
    11. Bogle, David & Coyle, Christopher & Turner, John D., 2020. "Capital Market Development Over the Long Run: The Portfolios of UK Life Assurers Over Two Centuries," QBS Working Paper Series 2020/11, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    12. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle H. & Neumayer, Andreas, 2018. "The persistence of ownership inequality: Investors on the German stock exchanges, 1869-1945," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 20-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    13. David Chambers & Elroy Dimson & Christophe Spaenjers, 0. "Art as an Asset: Evidence from Keynes the Collector," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 490-520.
    14. David Chambers & Christophe Spaenjers & Eva Maria Steiner, 2020. "The Rate of Return on Real Estate: Long-Run Micro-Level Evidence," Working Papers hal-02896386, HAL.

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