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The Rate of Return on Real Estate: Long-Run Micro-Level Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • David Chambers
  • Christophe Spaenjers

    (Department of Economics - Tilburg University [Netherlands])

  • Eva Maria Steiner

Abstract

Direct real estate investments are less profitable and more risky in the long run than previously thought. We hand-collect property-level financial data for four large U.K. institutional investors—Oxbridge colleges—for the period 1901–1970. Gross income yields initially fluctuate around 5%, but then trend downward (upward) for agricultural and residential (commercial) real estate. Net yields are about one third below gross yields on average. Long-term real income growth rates are close to zero. These findings imply real annualized net total returns of less than 4% across all property types. Moreover, real estate investments are associated with considerable idiosyncratic risks.

Suggested Citation

  • David Chambers & Christophe Spaenjers & Eva Maria Steiner, 2020. "The Rate of Return on Real Estate: Long-Run Micro-Level Evidence," Working Papers hal-02896386, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02896386
    DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3407236
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Qizhou Xiong, 2021. "Housing Yields," Working Papers 2021:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari", revised 2021.
    2. William N Goetzmann & Christophe Spaenjers & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Real and Private-Value Assets [Gendered prices]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3497-3526.
    3. Korevaar, Matthijs, 2023. "Reaching for yield and the housing market: Evidence from 18th-century Amsterdam," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 273-296.
    4. Wang, Jiaxin & Huang, Xiang & Gu, Qiankun & Song, Zilong & Sun, Ruiyi, 2023. "How does fintech affect bank risk? A perspective based on financialized transfer of government implicit debt risk," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    5. Claudio Borio & Øyvind Eitrheim & Marc Flandreau & Clemens Jobst & Jan F Qvigstad & Ryland Thomas, 2022. "Historical monetary and financial statistics for policymakers: towards a unified framework," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 127.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    real estate; property prices; rental yields; long-run returns; idiosyncratic risks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

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