Individual exchange rate forecasts and expected fundamentals
AbstractThis paper suggests that exchange rates are related to economic fundamentals over medium-term horizons, such as a month or longer. We find from a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts that good exchange rate forecasts benefit from the proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relation is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls. Reassuringly, this relation is stronger during obvious fundamental misalignment. This occurs when exchange rates substantially deviate from their PPP values, when interest rate differentials are high and when exchange rates are less influenced by strong momentum. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research in its series ZEW Discussion Papers with number 11-062.
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Exchange Rate Determination; Individual Expectations; Macroeconomic Fundamentals;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-11-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-11-28 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FOR-2011-11-28 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MON-2011-11-28 (Monetary Economics)
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