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Further evidence on technical analysis and profitability of foreign exchange intervention

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Author Info
Simón Sosvilla-Rivero
Julián Andrada-Félix
Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez

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Abstract

In this paper we present new evidence on the positive correlation Between returns from technical trading rules and periods of central bank intervention. To that end, we evaluate the profitability of a trading strategy based on nearest-neighbour (nonlinear) predictors, which may be viewed as a generalisation of graphical methods widely used in financial markets. We use daily data on the US Dollar/Deutsche mark and US Dollar/Japanese Yen covering the 1 February 1982-31 December 1996 period. Our results suggest that the exclusion of days of US intervention implies a substantial reduction in all profitability indicators (net returns, ideal profit measure, Sharpe ratio and directional forecast), being the reduction grater in the US Dollar-Deustchmark case than in the US Dollar-Japanese yen case.

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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 99-01.

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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:9901

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Keywords: Central bank intervention Technical trading rules Exchange rates

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. C.L. Osler & P.H. Kevin Chang, 1995. "Head and shoulders: not just a flaky pattern," Staff Reports 4, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  2. Neely, Christopher J. & Weller, Paul A., 2001. "Technical analysis and central bank intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 949-970, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. William F. Sharpe, 1965. "Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39, pages 119. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada-Félix, . "Technical Analysis in Foreign Exchange Markets: Linear Versus Nonlinear Trading Rules," Working Papers on International Economics and Finance 00-02, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
  2. F. FernÁndez-RodrÍguez & S. Sosvilla-Rivero & J. Andrada-FÉlix, 2003. "Technical analysis in foreign exchange markets: evidence from the EMS," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 113-122, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Christian González-Martel* & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "On the profitability of technical trading rules based on arifitial neural networks : evidence from the Madrid stock market," Working Papers 99-07, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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