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Testing the Profitability of Technical Analysis as a Portfolio Selection Strategy

Author

Listed:
  • Vlad Pavlov

    (QUT)

  • Stan Hurn

    (QUT)

Abstract

One of the main diffculties in evaluating the profits obtained using technical analysis is that trading rules are often specifed rather vaguely by practitioners and depend upon the judicious choice of rule parameters. In this paper, popular moving-average (or cross-over) rules are applied to a cross-section of Australian stocks and the signals from the rules are used to form portfolios. The performance of the trading rules across the full range of possible parameter values is evaluated by means of an aggregate test that does not depend on the parameters of the rules. The results indicate that for a wide range of parameters moving-average rules generate contrarian profits (profits from the moving-average rules are negative). In bootstrap simulations the returns statistics are significant indicating that the moving-average rules pick up some form of systematic variation in returns that does not correlate with the standard risk factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Vlad Pavlov & Stan Hurn, 2009. "Testing the Profitability of Technical Analysis as a Portfolio Selection Strategy," NCER Working Paper Series 52, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:qut:auncer:2009_65
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    File URL: http://www.ncer.edu.au/papers/documents/WPNo52.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Farias Nazário, Rodolfo Toríbio & e Silva, Jéssica Lima & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim & Kimura, Herbert, 2017. "A literature review of technical analysis on stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 115-126.
    2. Lijun Wang & Haizhong An & Xiaohua Xia & Xiaojia Liu & Xiaoqi Sun & Xuan Huang, 2014. "Generating Moving Average Trading Rules on the Oil Futures Market with Genetic Algorithms," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2014, pages 1-10, May.
    3. Panha Heng & Scott J. Niblock, 2014. "Trading with Tigers: A Technical Analysis of Southeast Asian Stock Index Futures," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 679-692, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock returns; Technical analysis; Momentum trading rules; Bootstrapping.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other

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