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Jump risk, time-varying risk premia, and technical trading profits

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  • Chenyang Feng
  • Stephen D. Smith
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    Abstract

    In this paper we investigate the recently documented trading profits based on technical trading rules in an asset pricing framework that incorporates jump risk and time-varying risk premia. Following Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992), we apply popular technical trading rules to the daily S&P 500 index over a long period of time. Trading profits are examined using bootstrap simulation to address distributional anomalies. We estimate a variety of asset pricing models, including the random walk, autoregressive models, a combined jump diffusion model, and a combined model of jump-diffusion and autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity. Technical trading profits are shown to be statistically significant for the pure diffusion models and autoregressive models, yet become less significant when jump risk is incorporated into the model and virtually disappear for an asset pricing model that incorporates both jump risk and time-varying risk premia. The empirical evidence suggests that technical trading profits could be fair compensation for the risk of price discontinuity as well as time-varying risk premia of asset returns. Alternatively, technical trading profits provide a test of specification of asset pricing models; in this vein the evidence provides support for the incorporation of jump risk into asset pricing models.

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    File URL: http://www.frbatlanta.org//filelegacydocs/Wp9717.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 97-17.

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    Date of creation: 1997
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:97-17

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    Keywords: Financial markets ; Prices;

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    1. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
    2. Brock, William & Lakonishok, Josef & LeBaron, Blake, 1992. " Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(5), pages 1731-64, December.
    3. Philippe Jorion, 1988. "On Jump Processes in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 427-445.
    4. Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1985. " On Jumps in Common Stock Prices and Their Impact on Call Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 155-73, March.
    5. Bong-Chan, Kho, 1996. "Time-varying risk premia, volatility, and technical trading rule profits: Evidence from foreign currency futures markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 249-290, June.
    6. Akgiray, Vedat & Booth, G Geoffrey, 1988. "Mixed Diffusion-Jump Process Modeling of Exchange Rate Movements," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(4), pages 631-37, November.
    7. Jarrow, Robert A & Rosenfeld, Eric R, 1984. "Jump Risks and the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(3), pages 337-51, July.
    8. Levich, Richard M. & Thomas, Lee III, 1993. "The significance of technical trading-rule profits in the foreign exchange market: a bootstrap approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 451-474, October.
    9. Brorsen, B Wade & Yang, Seung-Ryong, 1994. "Nonlinear Dynamics and the Distribution of Daily Stock Index Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 187-203, Summer.
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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