Forecasting commodity prices: GARCH, jumps, and mean reversion
AbstractIn examining stochastic models for commodity prices, central questions often revolve around time-varying trend, stochastic convenience yield and volatility, and mean reversion. This paper seeks to assess and compare alternative approaches to modelling these effects, with focus on forecast performance. Three specifications are considered: (i) random-walk models with GARCH and normal or Student- t innovations; (ii) Poisson-based jump-diffusion models with GARCH and normal or Student- t innovations; and (iii) mean-reverting models that allow for uncertainty in equilibrium price. Our empirical application makes use of aluminium spot and futures price series at daily and weekly frequencies. Results show: (i) models with stochastic convenience yield outperform all other competing models, and for all forecast horizons; (ii) the use of futures prices does not always yield lower forecast error values compared to the use of spot prices; and (iii) within the class of (G)ARCH random-walk models, no model uniformly dominates the other. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.
Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966
Other versions of this item:
- Jean-Thomas Bernard & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian & Sebastien McMahon, 2006. "Forecasting Commodity Prices: GARCH, Jumps, and Mean Reversion," Working Papers 06-14, Bank of Canada.
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mikhail Chernov & A. Ronald Gallant & Eric Ghysels & George Tauchen, 2002.
"Alternative Models for Stock Price Dynamics,"
CIRANO Working Papers
- Saphores, J.D. & Khalaf, L. & Pelletier, D., 2000.
"On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices. An Application to Stumpage Prices from Pacific Northwest National Forests,"
00-03, Laval - Recherche en Energie.
- Saphores, Jean-Daniel & Khalaf, Lynda & Pelletier, Denis, 2000. "On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices. An Application to Stumpage Prices from Pacific Northwest National Forests," Cahiers de recherche 0003, GREEN.
- Saphores, Jean-Daniel & Khalaf, Lynda & Pelletier, Denis, 2000. "On Jumps and Arch Effects in Natural Resource Prices. An Application to Stumpage Prices from Pacific Northwest National Forests," Cahiers de recherche 0003, Université Laval - Département d'économique.
- Andrews, Donald W K, 2001.
"Testing When a Parameter Is on the Boundary of the Maintained Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 683-734, May.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1999. "Testing When a Parameter Is on the Boundary of the Maintained Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1229, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1985. " On Jumps in Common Stock Prices and Their Impact on Call Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 155-73, March.
- Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2004. "Disentangling diffusion from jumps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 487-528, December.
- Merton, Robert C., 1975.
"Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous,"
787-75., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1998.
"The long-run evolution of energy prices,"
WP 4044-98., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Moore, Michael J & Cullen, Ursula, 1995. "Speculative Efficiency on the London Metal Exchange," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(3), pages 235-56, September.
- Labys, W. C. & Achouch, A. & Terraza, M., 1999. "Metal prices and the business cycle," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 229-238, December.
- Jarrow, Robert A & Rosenfeld, Eric R, 1984. "Jump Risks and the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(3), pages 337-51, July.
- Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
- Ahrens, W. Ashley & Sharma, Vijaya R., 1997. "Trends in Natural Resource Commodity Prices: Deterministic or Stochastic?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 59-74, May.
- Jean-Daniel Saphores & Lynda Khalaf & Denis Pelletier, 2002. "On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices: An Application to Pacific Northwest Stumpage Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(2), pages 387-400.
- Khalaf, Lynda & Saphores, Jean-Daniel & Bilodeau, Jean-Francois, 2003. "Simulation-based exact jump tests in models with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 531-553, December.
- Philippe Jorion, 1988. "On Jump Processes in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(4), pages 427-445.
- Akgiray, Vedat, et al, 1991. "Conditional Dependence in Precious Metal Prices," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 26(3), pages 367-86, August.
- Perron, Pierre, 1989.
"The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
- Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
- Drost, F.C. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 1994.
"Estimation and testing in models containing both jumps and conditional heteroskedasticity,"
1994-105, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E & Werker, Bas J M, 1998. "Estimation and Testing in Models Containing Both Jump and Conditional Heteroscedasticity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 237-43, April.
- Stacie Beck, 2001. "Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in commodity spot prices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(2), pages 115-132.
- Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. " Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-76, July.
- Brorsen, B Wade & Yang, Seung-Ryong, 1994. "Nonlinear Dynamics and the Distribution of Daily Stock Index Returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 17(2), pages 187-203, Summer.
- Labys, W C & Lesourd, J B & Badillo, D, 1998. "The existence of metal price cycles," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 147-155, September.
- Hafedh Bouakez & Badye Omar Essid & Michel Normandin, 2010.
"Stock Returns and Monetary Policy: Are There Any Ties ?,"
Cahiers de recherche
- Bouakez, Hafedh & Essid, Badye & Normandin, Michel, 2013. "Stock returns and monetary policy: Are there any ties?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 33-50.
- Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & McMahon, Sébastien, 2008. "Oil Prices: Heavy Tails, Mean Reversion and the Convenience Yield," Cahiers de recherche 0801, GREEN.
- Batten, Jonathan A. & Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian M., 2010.
"The macroeconomic determinants of volatility in precious metals markets,"
Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 65-71, June.
- Jonathan A. Batten, Cetin Ciner and Brian M. Lucey, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Volatility in Precious Metals Markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp255, IIIS.
- Heydari, Somayeh & Siddiqui, Afzal, 2010. "Valuing a gas-fired power plant: A comparison of ordinary linear models, regime-switching approaches, and models with stochastic volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 709-725, May.
- Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2013. "A study on the Price Behavior of Base Metals traded in India," MPRA Paper 47028, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.