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Exploiting trends in the foreign exchange markets

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  • Adrián Fernández-P�rez
  • Fernando Fernández-Rodr�guez
  • Simón Sosvilla-Rivero

Abstract

We offer further evidence on the relevance of technical trading in exchange-rate markets using daily data for 95 currencies against the US dollar. To that end, we investigate the profitability of a simple technical trading rule based on Taylor's (1980) price trend model, generating optimal one-step-ahead forecasts of returns using genetic algorithms. These trading rules, that bear similarity to the popular trading rules based on moving averages, overcome the buy-and-hold strategy in 25 of 39 cases where trends are detected, even in the presence of transaction costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Adrián Fernández-P�rez & Fernando Fernández-Rodr�guez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2012. "Exploiting trends in the foreign exchange markets," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 591-597, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:19:y:2012:i:6:p:591-597
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2011.589801
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Lijun & An, Haizhong & Liu, Xiaojia & Huang, Xuan, 2016. "Selecting dynamic moving average trading rules in the crude oil futures market using a genetic approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 1608-1618.
    2. Muhammad Arif & Muddasar Hasan & Abu Bakr & Muhammad Ziaullah & Muhammad Ali Tarer, 2018. "Profitability Of The Moving Averages Technical Trading Rules In An Emerging Stock Market-A Study Of Individual Stocks Listed On Pakistan Stock Exchange," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 14(2), pages 67-76.
    3. Muhammad Arif & Muddasar Hasan & Abu Bakr & Muhammad Ziaullah & Muhammad Ali Tarer, 2018. "Profitability Of The Moving Averages Technical Trading Rules In An Emerging Stock Market-A Study Of Individual Stocks Listed On Pakistan Stock Exchange," IBT Journal of Business Studies (JBS), Ilma University, Faculty of Management Science, vol. 14(2), pages 14-16.

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