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Citations for "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?"

by Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min

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  1. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
  2. Kuosmanen, Petri & Vataja, Juuso, 2014. "Forecasting GDP growth with financial market data in Finland: Revisiting stylized facts in a small open economy during the financial crisis," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-97.
  3. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios, 2004. "The Yield Spread as a Symmetric Predictor of Output and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4314, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Alain Monfort & Jean-Paul Renne, 2011. "Credit and Liquidity Risks in Euro-area Sovereign Yield Curves," Working Papers 2011-26, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  5. Jan Bruha, 2011. "Retail Credit Premiums and Macroeconomic Developments," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, chapter 0, pages 133-140 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  6. Favero, Carlo A & Kaminska, Iryna & Söderström, Ulf, 2005. "The Predictive Power of the Yield Spread: Further Evidence and A Structural Interpretation," CEPR Discussion Papers 4910, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Taboga, Marco, 2007. "Structural change and the bond yield conundrum," MPRA Paper 4965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Jens H. E. Christensen & Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2007. "The Affine Arbitrage-Free Class of: Nelson-Siegel Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 13611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Zinna, Gabriele, 2013. "Sovereign default risk premia: Evidence from the default swap market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 15-35.
  10. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009. "Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.
  11. Lucio Sarno & Daniel L. Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2005. "The empirical failure of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of bond yields," Working Papers 2003-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. Moench, Emanuel, 2008. "Forecasting the yield curve in a data-rich environment: A no-arbitrage factor-augmented VAR approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 26-43, September.
  13. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "The term structure and the expectations hypothesis: a threshold model," MPRA Paper 9611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Luís Francisco Aguiar & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2010. "The yield curve and the macro-economy across time and frequencies," NIPE Working Papers 21/2010, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  15. Alain Monfort & Fulvio Pegoraro, 2007. "Switching VARMA Term Structure Models - Extended Version," Working Papers 2007-19, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  16. GlennD. Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2008. "A Macro-Finance Model of the Term Structure, Monetary Policy and the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 906-926, 07.
  17. Groen, J.J.J. & Paap, R., 2009. "Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-19, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  18. Geert Bekaert & Seonghoon Cho & Antonio Moreno, 2010. "New Keynesian Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 33-62, 02.
  19. John Cochrane, 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," NBER Working Papers 11193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2008. "A Joint Dynamic Bi-Factor Model of the Yield Curve and the Economy as a Predictor of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 15076, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
  21. Jane M. Binner & Peter Tino & Jonathan Tepper & Richard G. Anderson & Barry Jones & Graham Kendall, 2009. "Does money matter in inflation forecasting?," Working Papers 2009-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  22. Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  23. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
  24. Markus Baltzer & Gerhard Kling, 2007. "Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of monetary regimes in Germany, 1870-2003," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 401-404.
  25. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili, 2008. "Short-term interest rate futures as monetary policy forecasts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 681, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  26. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Eric T. Swanson & Tao Wu, 2006. "The Bond Yield "Conundrum" from a Macro-Finance Perspective," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 24(S1), pages 83-109, December.
  27. Dewachter, Hans & Iania, Leonardo & Lyrio, Marco, 2011. "Information in the Yield Curve: A Macro-Finance Approach," Insper Working Papers wpe_230, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  28. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Working Papers 12609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2007. "Equilibrium Yield Curves," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 389-472 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Christian Gourieroux & Alain Monfort & Razvan Sufana, 2005. "International Money and Stock Market Contingent Claims," Working Papers 2005-41, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  30. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos, 2010. "Should Macroeconomic Forecasters Use Daily Financial Data and How?," Working Paper Series 42_10, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  31. Nyberg, Henri, 2010. "QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 23724, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Jonathan A Batten & Peter G Szilagyi, 2012. "Comments on Qianying Chen, Andrew Filardo, Dong He and Feng Zhu's paper "The impact of central bank balance sheet policies on the emerging economies"," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 265-284 Bank for International Settlements.
  33. Söderberg, Jonas, 2008. "Do Macroeconomic Variables Forecast Changes in Liquidity? An Out-of-sample Study on the Order-driven Stock Markets in Scandinavia," CAFO Working Papers 2009:10, Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO), School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University.
  34. Renne, J-P., 2009. "Frequency-domain analysis of debt service in a macro-finance model for the euro area," Working papers 261, Banque de France.
  35. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting: No‐Arbitrage Restrictions versus Large Information Set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 124-156, 03.
  36. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2011. "A Macro-Finance Approach to Exchange Rate Determination," Working Papers 012011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  37. Taboga, Marco & Pericoli, Marcello, 2008. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," MPRA Paper 9523, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Bassett, William F. & Chosak, Mary Beth & Driscoll, John C. & Zakrajšek, Egon, 2014. "Changes in bank lending standards and the macroeconomy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 23-40.
  39. André Kurmann & Christopher Otrok, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Cahiers de recherche 1005, CIRPEE.
  40. Koeda, Junko, 2013. "Endogenous monetary policy shifts and the term structure: Evidence from Japanese government bond yields," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 170-188.
  41. Zeno Rotondi, 2006. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Review of the Literature with Some New Evidence," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 65(2), pages 193-224, November.
  42. Jun Yang, 2008. "Macroeconomic Determinants of the Term Structure of Corporate Spreads," Working Papers 08-29, Bank of Canada.
  43. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2003. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Nonstructural Analysis," PIER Working Paper Archive 03-024, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  44. Dahlquist, Magnus & Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2013. "International Bond Risk Premia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 17-32.
  45. Santiago García-Verdú, 2011. "On the Term Structure of Interest Rates of the Mexican Government," Working Papers 2011-18, Banco de México.
  46. Marcello Pericoli & Marco Taboga, 2008. "Canonical Term-Structure Models with Observable Factors and the Dynamics of Bond Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1471-1488, October.
  47. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
  48. Joslin, Scott & Le, Anh & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2013. "Why Gaussian macro-finance term structure models are (nearly) unconstrained factor-VARs," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 604-622.
  49. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2008. "Forecasting with the yield curve; level, slope, and output 1875-1997," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 48-50, April.
  50. Josué Fernando Cortés Espada & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2008. "A Macroeconomic Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Mexico," Working Papers 2008-10, Banco de México.
  51. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Dynamic modeling under linear-exponential loss," Working Papers w0092, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  52. Eric Ghysels & Andros Kourtellos & Elena Andreou, 2012. "Should macroeconomic forecasters use daily financial data and how?," 2012 Meeting Papers 1196, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  53. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Loublier, Alexis, 2010. "Epstein-Zin preferences and their use in macro-finance models: implications for optimal monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1209, European Central Bank.
  54. Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "The yield curve and predicting recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-07, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  55. David C. Wheelock & Mark E. Wohar, 2009. "Can the term spread predict output growth and recessions? a survey of the literature," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 419-440.
  56. John H. Cochrane, 2009. "Comment on "On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 427-448 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  57. Andrea Carriero & Carlo Favero & Iryna Kaminska, 2004. "Financial Factors, Macroeconomic Information and the Expectations Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 253, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  58. Juan Marcelo, Ochoa, 2006. "An Interpretation of An Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," MPRA Paper 1072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  59. ZHU Xiaoneng & Shahidur RAHMAN, 2009. "A Regime Switching Macro-finance Model of the Term Structure," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0901, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
  60. Lu, Biao & Wu, Liuren, 2009. "Macroeconomic releases and the interest rate term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 872-884, September.
  61. Luis Gil-Alana & Antonio Moreno, . "Uncovering the U.S. Term Premium: An Alternative Route," Faculty Working Papers 12/07, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  62. Felix Geiger, 2009. "International Interest-Rate Risk Premia in Affine Term Structure Models," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 316/2009, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  63. Leo Krippner & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Forecasting New Zealand's economic growth using yield curve information," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/18, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  64. Junko Koeda, 2010. "How Does Yield Curve Predict GDP Growth? A Macro-Finance Approach Revisited," CARF F-Series CARF-F-237, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo, revised Jan 2011.
  65. Jonas Dovern & Christina Ziegler, 2008. "Predicting Growth Rates and Recessions. Assessing U.S. Leading Indicators Under Real-Time Conditions," Kiel Working Papers 1397, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  66. Michael Bleaney & Paul Mizen & Veronica Veleanu, . "Bond Spreads as Predictors of Economic Activity in Eight European Economies," Discussion Papers 12/11, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  67. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2012. "GDP trend deviations and the yield spread: the case of eight E.U. countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 226-237, January.
  68. Zhenyu Wang & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "Empirical evaluation of asset pricing models: arbitrage and pricing errors over contingent claims," Staff Reports 265, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  69. Josué Fernando Cortés Espada & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2008. "An Affine Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Mexico," Working Papers 2008-09, Banco de México.
  70. Andrew Ang & Sen Dong & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "No-arbitrage Taylor rules," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  71. Dionisios Chionis & Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2010. "Predicting European Union Recessions in the Euro Era: The Yield Curve as a Forecasting Tool of Economic Activity," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, February.
  72. Daniel R. Smith & Christophe Parignon, 2004. "Modeling Yield-Factor Volatility," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 307, Econometric Society.
  73. Peter Spencer, 2004. "Affine Macroeconomic Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: The US Treasury Market 1961-99," Discussion Papers 04/16, Department of Economics, University of York, revised Jan 2006.
  74. Marcelo Ochoa, 2006. "Interpreting an Affine Term Structure Model for Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 380, Central Bank of Chile.
  75. Hasseltoft, Henrik, 2007. "The Long-run Risk Model: Dynamics and Cyclicality of Interest Rates," SIFR Research Report Series 58, Institute for Financial Research.
  76. Costanza Torricelli & Marianna Brunetti, 2006. "Economic activity and Recession Probabilities: spread predictive power in Italy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 350, Society for Computational Economics.
  77. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2009. "Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-20, CIRANO.
  78. Orazio Di Miscia, 2005. "Term structure of interest models: concept and estimation problem in a continuous-time setting," Finance 0504017, EconWPA.
  79. Gilchrist, Simon & Yankov, Vladimir & Zakrajsek, Egon, 2009. "Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 471-493, May.
  80. Jones, Christopher S. & Tuzel, Selale, 2013. "Inventory investment and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 557-579.
  81. Dalu Zhang & Peter Moffatt, 2012. "The yield curve as a leading indicator in economic forecasting in the U.K," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 035, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  82. Kristoffer Nimark, 2008. "Monetary policy with signal extraction from the bond market," Economics Working Papers 1181, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  83. Duffee, Gregory R., 2006. "Term structure estimation without using latent factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 507-536, March.
  84. Fan, Longzhen & Johansson, Anders C., 2009. "What Moves Bond Yields In China?," Working Paper Series 2009-9, China Economic Research Center, Stockholm School of Economics.
  85. Thomas Theobald, 2012. "Combining Recession Probability Forecasts from a Dynamic Probit Indicator," IMK Working Paper 89-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  86. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2012. "Identification and estimation of Gaussian affine term structure models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 315-331.
  87. Watson, John & Wickramanayake, J., 2012. "The relationship between aggregate managed fund flows and share market returns in Australia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 451-472.
  88. Mehl, Arnaud, 2006. "The yield curve as a predictor and emerging economies," Working Paper Series 0691, European Central Bank.
  89. Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Andrea Donato Tortora, 2011. "Myths and Facts about the Alleged Over-Pricing of U.S. Real Estate. Evidence from Multi-Factor Asset Pricing Models of REIT Returns," Working Papers 416, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  90. Ulrich, Maxim, 2013. "Inflation ambiguity and the term structure of U.S. Government bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 295-309.
  91. Bertholon, H. & Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2008. "Econometric Asset Pricing Modelling," Working papers 223, Banque de France.
  92. Kim, Hwagyun & Park, Hail, 2013. "Term structure dynamics with macro-factors using high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 78-93.
  93. Márcio Laurini & João Frois Caldeira, 2012. "Some Comments on a Macro-Finance Model with Stochastic Volatility," IBMEC RJ Economics Discussion Papers 2012-04, Economics Research Group, IBMEC Business School - Rio de Janeiro.
  94. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Jun Yang, 2007. "A No-Arbitrage Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Term Structures and the Exchange Rate," Working Papers 07-21, Bank of Canada.
  95. de Bondt, Gabe & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis & Scopel, Silvia, 2010. "The euro area Bank Lending Survey matters: empirical evidence for credit and output growth," Working Paper Series 1160, European Central Bank.
  96. repec:wyi:wpaper:002005 is not listed on IDEAS
  97. Monfort, A. & Pegoraro, F., 2007. "Multi-Lag Term Structure Models with Stochastic Risk Premia," Working papers 189, Banque de France.
  98. Charles Ka Yui Leung, 2005. "Equilibrium Correlation of Asset Price and Return," Departmental Working Papers _175, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics.
  99. Kao, Yi-Cheng & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Chen, Shikuan, 2013. "Testing the predictive power of the term structure without data snooping bias," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 546-549.
  100. Hibiki Ichiue, 2004. "Why Can the Yield Curve Predict Output Growth, Inflation, and Interest Rates? An Analysis with Affine Term Structure Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 581, Econometric Society.
  101. De Pooter, Michiel & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Dick, 2006. "Predicting the term structure of interest rates incorporating parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty and macroeconomic information," MPRA Paper 2512, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Mar 2007.
  102. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton & Wei Yang, 2004. "Regime shifts in a dynamic term structure model of U.S. Treasury bond yields," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  103. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "Yield curve, time varying term premia, and business cycle fluctuations," MPRA Paper 8873, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  104. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2007. "Approximately normal tests for equal predictive accuracy in nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 291-311, May.
  105. Junko Koeda & Ryo Kato, 2010. "The Role of Uncertainty in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Macro-Finance Perspective," CARF F-Series CARF-F-207, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  106. Matteo Modena, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Curvature Factor of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers 2008_35, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  107. Kristoffer Nimark, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Real-time Signal Extraction from the Bond Market," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  108. Andrea Carriero, 2007. "Forecasting the Yield Curve Using Priors from No Arbitrage Affine Term Structure Models," Working Papers 612, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  109. René Garcia & Richard Luger, 2005. "The Canadian Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: An Equilibrium-Based Approach," Working Papers 05-36, Bank of Canada.
  110. Mark Mink, 2011. "Procyclical Bank Risk-Taking and the Lender of Last Resort," DNB Working Papers 301, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  111. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2012. "Forecasting Inflation and the Inflation Risk Premiums Using Nominal Yields," Working Papers 12-37, Bank of Canada.
  112. He, Zhongfang, 2009. "Forecasting output growth by the yield curve: the role of structural breaks," MPRA Paper 28208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  113. Taboga, Marco, 2008. "Macro-finance VARs and bond risk premia: a caveat," MPRA Paper 11585, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  114. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch & S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "The Macroeconomy and the Yield Curve: A Dynamic Latent Factor Approach," NBER Working Papers 10616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  115. Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis: The Japanese term structure and regime shifts," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 237-249, May.
  116. Abdymomunov, Azamat, 2013. "Predicting output using the entire yield curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 333-344.
  117. Greg Duffee, 2011. "Information in (and not in) the term structure," Economics Working Paper Archive 577, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  118. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Samuel Maurer, 2008. "Signal or noise? Implications of the term premium for recession forecasting," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 1-11.
  119. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 21-33.
  120. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni, 2007. "Do Bonds Span Volatility Risk in the U.S. Treasury Market? A Specification test for Affine Term Structure Models," NBER Working Papers 12962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  121. Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter & Mele, Antonio, 2013. "Macroeconomic determinants of stock volatility and volatility premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 203-220.
  122. Alfred V Guender & Bernard Tolan, 2013. "The Centre Matters for the Periphery of Europe: The Predictive Ability of a GZ-Type Spread for Economic Activity in Europe," Working Papers in Economics 13/29, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  123. repec:wyi:journl:002125 is not listed on IDEAS
  124. Mollick, André Varella & Assefa, Tibebe Abebe, 2013. "U.S. stock returns and oil prices: The tale from daily data and the 2008–2009 financial crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-18.
  125. Gogas, Periklis & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2010. "Does the Interest Risk Premium Predict Housing Prices?," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 1-2010, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
  126. Conrad, Christian & Loch, Karin, 2012. "Anticipating Long-Term Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 0535, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  127. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6969, Paris Dauphine University.
  128. Coroneo, Laura & Nyholm, Ken & Vidova-Koleva, Rositsa, 2011. "How arbitrage-free is the Nelson-Siegel model?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 393-407, June.
  129. Periklis Gogas & Ioannis Pragidis, 2010. "GDP Trend Deviations and the Yield Spread: the Case of Five E.U. Countries," Papers 1005.1326, arXiv.org.
  130. Fernando M. Duarte, 2013. "Inflation risk and the cross section of stock returns," Staff Reports 621, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  131. Caroline JARDET & Alain MONFORT & Fulvio PEGORARO, 2011. "No-arbitrage Near-Cointegrated VAR(p) Term Structure Models, Term Premia and GDP Growth," Working Papers 2011-03, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  132. Mateus A. Feitosa & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2007. "Predictability Of Economic Activity Using Yield Spreads: The Case Of Brazil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 029, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  133. Dongho Song, 2014. "Bond Market Exposures to Macroeconomic and Monetary Policy Risks," PIER Working Paper Archive 14-017, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  134. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
  135. María O González & Frank Skinner & Samuel Agyei-Ampomah, 2013. "Term structure information and bond strategies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 53-74, July.
  136. Sagarika Mishra, . "Do Agents Learn by Least Squares? The Evidence Provided by Changes in Monetary Policy," Financial Econometics Series 2012_09, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  137. Egorov, Alexei V. & Li, Haitao & Ng, David, 2011. "A tale of two yield curves: Modeling the joint term structure of dollar and euro interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(1), pages 55-70, May.
  138. De Graeve, Ferre & Emiris, Marina & Wouters, Raf, 2009. "A structural decomposition of the US yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 545-559, May.
  139. Azamat Abdymomunov, 2013. "Regime-switching measure of systemic financial stress," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 455-470, August.
  140. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Brian P. Sack & Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Macroeconomic implications of changes in the term premium," Working Paper Series 2006-46, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  141. Mario Reyna Cerecero & Diana Salazar Cavazos & Héctor Salgado Banda, 2008. "The Yield Curve and its Relation with Economic Activity: The Mexican Case," Working Papers 2008-15, Banco de México.
  142. Marco Lombardi & Raphael A. Espinoza & Fabio Fornari, 2009. "The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 09/241, International Monetary Fund.
  143. Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz, 2012. "A dynamic factor model of the yield curve as a predictor of the economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  144. Koukouritakis, Minoas, 2013. "Expectations hypothesis in the context of debt crisis: Evidence from five major EU countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 243-258.
  145. Schrimpf, Andreas & Wang, Qingwei, 2010. "A reappraisal of the leading indicator properties of the yield curve under structural instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 836-857, October.
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