Changes in Predictive Ability with Mixed Frequency Data
AbstractThis paper proposes a new regression model - a smooth transition mixed data sampling (STMIDAS) approach - that captures recurrent changes in the ability of a high frequency variable in predicting a low frequency variable. The STMIDAS regression is employed for testing changes in the ability of financial variables in forecasting US output growth. The estimation of the optimal weights for aggregating weekly data inside the quarter improves the measurement of the predictive ability of the yield curve slope for output growth. Allowing for changes in the impact of the short-rate and the stock returns in future growth is decisive for finding in-sample and out-of-sample evidence of their predictive ability at horizons longer than one year.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 595.
Date of creation: May 2007
Date of revision:
Smooth transition; MIDAS; Predictive ability; Asset prices; Output growth;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-05-19 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2007-05-19 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2007-05-19 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2007-05-19 (Forecasting)
- NEP-MAC-2007-05-19 (Macroeconomics)
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