A Macroeconomic Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates in Mexico
AbstractThis paper investigates how different macroeconomic shocks affect the term-structure of interest rates in Mexico. In particular, we develop a model that combines a no-arbitrage specification of the term structure with a macroeconomic model of a small open economy. We find that shocks that are perceived to have a persistent effect on inflation affect the level of the yield curve. The effect on medium and long-term yields results from the increase in expected future short rates and in risk premia. With respect to demand shocks, our results show that a positive shock leads to an upward flattening shift in the yield curve. The flattening of the curve is explained by both the monetary policy response and the time-varying term premia.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2008-10.
Date of creation: Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Term-Structure; No-Arbitrage; Macroeconomic Shocks.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-03-07 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-03-07 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-03-07 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2009-03-07 (Monetary Economics)
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