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Retail Credit Premiums and Macroeconomic Developments

In: CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011

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  • Jan Bruha

Abstract

This article sets out to contribute to the understanding of the dynamics of retail credit premiums (i.e. the difference between reference interest rates and rates on retail loans with comparable maturities) in the Czech economy. The text documents the history of the credit premium. A model that investigates the relationship between this premium and the business cycle is then proposed, and it is shown that the current premium level can be explained to a large extent by the cyclical position of the economy. This model can be used not only as a tool for explaining the observed premium, but also to forecast the future premium, as it is linked to the variables used in the CNB’s core forecasting model.

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Bibliographic Info

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This chapter was published in: Jan Bruha CNB Financial Stability Report 2010/2011, , chapter Thematic Article 4, pages 133-140, 2011.

This item is provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes with number fsr1011/4.

Handle: RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:fsr1011/4

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  1. Tobias Adrian & Emanuel Moench & Hyun Song Shin, 2010. "Macro Risk Premium and Intermediary Balance Sheet Quantities," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(1), pages 179-207, August.
  2. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-89, October.
  3. Sander,Harald & Kleimeier,Stefanie, 2003. "Convergence in Eurozone retail banking? What interest rate pass-through tells us about monetary policy transmission, competition and integration," Research Memorandum 051, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  4. Vasco Cúrdia & Michael Woodford, 2009. "Credit spreads and monetary policy," Staff Reports 385, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2009. "On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 389-425 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi & Min Wei, 2004. "What Does the Yield Curve Tell us about GDP Growth?," NBER Working Papers 10672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2010. "The Response of Retail Interest Rates to Factor Forecasts of Money Market Rates in Major European Economies," Working Papers 025, COMISEF.
  8. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2005. "Bond Risk Premia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 138-160, March.
  9. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Adam Gersl & Jakub Seidler, 2010. "Stress Test Verification as Part of an Advanced Stress-Testing Framework," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 92-101 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
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