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Citations for "A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists: Does the Data Vintage Matter?"

by Dean Croushore & Tom Stark

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  1. Ales Bulir & Jaromír Hurník & Katerina Smidkova, 2014. "Inflation Reports and Models; How Well Do Central Banks Really Write?," IMF Working Papers 14/91, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Andrea Cipollini & Nektarios Aslanidis, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 006, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
  3. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," Working Papers 284, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    • Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. João Valle e Azevedo & Ana Pereira, 2008. "Approximating and Forecasting Macroeconomic Signals in Real-Time," Working Papers w200819, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  5. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2008. "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 319-340, 03.
  6. Kurmas Akdogan & Yunus Aksoy, 2007. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals : Is there a Role for Nonlinearities in Real Time?," Working Papers 0703, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  7. Joan Paredes & Diego J. Pedregal & Javier J. Pérez, 2009. "A quarterly fiscal database for the euro area based on intra-annual fiscal information," Working Papers 0935, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  8. Leonard I. Nakamura & Tom Stark, 2005. "Benchmark revisions and the U.S. personal saving rate," Working Papers 05-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Dean Croushore & Charles L. Evans, 2000. "Data Revisions and the Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0842, Econometric Society.
  10. Dean Croushore, 2006. "An evaluation of inflation forecasts from surveys using real-time data," Working Papers 06-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  11. Michael Pedersen, 2013. "Extracting GDP signals from the monthly indicator of economic activity: Evidence from Chilean real-time data," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2013(1), pages 1-16.
  12. Biswas, Anindya, 2014. "The output gap and expected security returns," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 131-140.
  13. Domenico Giannone & Jérôme Henry & Magdalena Lalik & Michele Modugno, 2012. "An Area-Wide Real-Time Database for the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1000-1013, November.
  14. Hui Feng, 2005. "Real-Time or Current Vintage: Does the Type of Data Matter for Forecasting and Model Selection?," Econometrics Working Papers 0515, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  15. Carlo Altavilla & Matteo Ciccarelli, 2011. "Monetary Policy Analysis in Real-Time. Vintage Combination from a Real-Time Dataset," CESifo Working Paper Series 3372, CESifo Group Munich.
  16. Clark, Todd & McCracken, Michael, 2013. "Advances in Forecast Evaluation," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  17. James D. Hamilton, 2010. "Calling Recessions in Real Time," NBER Working Papers 16162, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Knut Are Aastveit & Tørres G. Trovik, 2008. "Estimating the output gap in real time: A factor model approach," Working Paper 2008/23, Norges Bank.
  19. Fred Joutz & Michael P. Clements & Herman O. Stekler, 2007. "An evaluation of the forecasts of the federal reserve: a pooled approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 121-136.
  20. Jens Hogrefe, 2008. "Forecasting data revisions of GDP: a mixed frequency approach," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 92(3), pages 271-296, August.
  21. Clements, Michael P. & Beatriz Galvão, Ana, 2010. "First announcements and real economic activity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 803-817, August.
  22. Capek Jan, 2015. "Estimating DSGE model parameters in a small open economy: Do real-time data matter?," Review of Economic Perspectives, De Gruyter Open, vol. 15(1), pages 89-114, March.
  23. Noah Williams & Andrew Levin & Alexei Onatski, 2005. "Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in Micro-Founded Macroeconometric Models," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 478, Society for Computational Economics.
  24. Tom Stark, 2000. "Does current-quarter information improve quarterly forecasts for the U.S. economy?," Working Papers 00-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  25. Chrystalleni Aristidou & Kevin Lee & Kalvinder Shields, 2015. "Real-Time Data should be used in Forecasting Output Growth and Recessionary Events in the US," Discussion Papers 2015/13, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  26. Clements, Michael P. & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Forecasting with vector autoregressive models of data vintages: US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 698-714.
  27. Pierdzioch, Christian & Döpke, Jörg & Hartmann, Daniel, 2008. "Forecasting stock market volatility with macroeconomic variables in real time," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 256-276.
  28. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Beckers, Benjamin, 2015. "The real-time predictive content of asset price bubbles for macro forecasts," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112852, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  30. Jens Boysen-Hogrefe & Stefan Neuwirth, 2012. "The Impact of Seasonal and Price Adjustments on the Predictability of German GDP Revisions," Kiel Working Papers 1753, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  31. John Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2008. "The Calibration Of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts," Departmental Working Papers 2008-05, McGill University, Department of Economics.
  32. David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2010. "Forecasting from Mis-specified Models in the Presence of Unanticipated Location Shifts," Economics Series Working Papers 484, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  33. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206.
  34. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 2000. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists: does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 00-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  35. Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
  36. Dean Croushore, 2008. "Revisions to PCE inflation measures: implications for monetary policy," Working Papers 08-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  37. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2011. "The changing sensitivity of realized portfolio betas to U.S. output growth: An analysis based on real-time data," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 168-186, May.
  38. Tierney, Heather L.R., 2010. "Real-Time Data Revisions and the PCE Measure of Inflation," MPRA Paper 22387, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2010.
  39. Leonard I. Nakamura & Tom Stark, 2007. "Mismeasured personal saving and the permanent income hypothesis," Working Papers 07-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  40. Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
  41. S Cook, 2011. "An historical perspective on the forecasting performance of the Treasury Model: Forecasting the growth in UK consumers' expenditure," Post-Print hal-00665455, HAL.
  42. John Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2009. "Calibration and Resolution Diagnostics for Bank of England Density Forecasts," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-36, CIRANO.
  43. Martin Mandler, 2009. "Decomposing Federal Funds Rate forecast uncertainty using real-time data," MAGKS Papers on Economics 200947, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  44. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2009. "Tests of Equal Predictive Ability With Real-Time Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 441-454.
  45. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2006. "Macroeconomic Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Data : Forecasting US output growth and inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 773, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  46. Paolo Pasquariello & Clara Vega, 2006. "Informed and strategic order flow in the bond markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 874, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  47. João Valle e Azevedo & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Rational vs. Professional Forecasts," Working Papers w201114, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  48. Miguel de Carvalho & António Rua, 2014. "Real-time nowcasting the US output gap: Singular spectrum analysis at work," Working Papers w201416, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  49. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2004. "Data Uncertainty in General Equilibrium," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 131, Society for Computational Economics.
  50. Cath Sleeman, 2006. "Analysis of revisions to quarterly GDP - a real-time database," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 69, pages 44p., March.
  51. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin, 2001. "Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 8379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Genre, Véronique & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan & Timmermann, Allan, 2013. "Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 108-121.
  53. Isabel Yi Zheng & James Rossiter, 2006. "Using Monthly Indicators to Predict Quarterly GDP," Staff Working Papers 06-26, Bank of Canada.
  54. Döpke, Jörg, 2004. "Real-time data and business cycle analysis in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  55. Givens, Gregory, 2016. "Do data revisions matter for DSGE estimation?," MPRA Paper 70932, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  56. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  57. Dean Croushore, 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(1), pages 72-100, March.
  58. Altavilla, Carlo & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2007. "Information combination and forecast (st)ability evidence from vintages of time-series data," Working Paper Series 0846, European Central Bank.
  59. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2010. "The business cycle and the equity risk premium in real time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-722, October.
  60. Emilia Tomczyk, 2013. "End of sample vs. real time data: perspectives for analysis of expectations," Working Papers 68, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
  61. Jiang, Lei, 2014. "Stock liquidity and the Taylor rule," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 202-214.
  62. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2005. "Short-Run Italian GDP Forecasting and Real-Time Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5302, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  63. Dean Croushore & Tom Stark, 1999. "Does data vintage matter for forecasting?," Working Papers 99-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  64. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(1), pages 3-56, March.
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