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Why is Long-Horizon Equity Less Risky? A Duration-based Explanation of the Value Premium

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Auer, Benjamin R., 2013. "Can habit formation under complete market integration explain the cross-section of international equity risk premia?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 61-67.
  2. Huang Yi & Yang Xiugang, 2018. "Investors’ Sentiment and Enterprise's Non-Efficient investment: The Intermediary Effect of Stock Price Volatility," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 8(7), pages 1-14, July.
  3. Hens, Thorsten & Schindler, Nilüfer, 2020. "Value and patience: The value premium in a dividend-growth model with hyperbolic discounting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 161-179.
  4. Bandi, Federico M. & Chaudhuri, Shomesh E. & Lo, Andrew W. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2021. "Spectral factor models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 214-238.
  5. Mariano M. Croce & Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2015. "Investor Information, Long-Run Risk, and the Term Structure of Equity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 706-742.
  6. Huang Yi & Yang Xiugang, 2018. "Investors’ Sentiment and Enterprise's Non-Efficient investment: The Intermediary Effect of Stock Price Volatility," International Journal of Business and Social Research, LAR Center Press, vol. 8(7), pages 1-14, July.
  7. Bauer, Michael D. & Pflueger, Carolin E. & Sunderam, Adi, 2022. "Perceptions about monetary policy," IMFS Working Paper Series 176, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
  8. Tobias Adrian & Joshua Rosenberg, 2008. "Stock Returns and Volatility: Pricing the Short‐Run and Long‐Run Components of Market Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2997-3030, December.
  9. le Bris, David & Goetzmann, William N. & Pouget, Sébastien, 2019. "The present value relation over six centuries: The case of the Bazacle company," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 248-265.
  10. Tanveer Ahmad; Syed Muhammad Amir Shah, 2017. "The Value-Growth Indicators and Value Premium: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange," South Asian Journal of Management Sciences (SAJMS), Iqra University, Iqra University, vol. 11(2), pages 124-139, Fall.
  11. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Xing, Yuhang, 2009. "Risk, uncertainty, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 59-82, January.
  12. John H. Cochrane, 2014. "A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 1-49, February.
  13. Hui Guo & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2013. "Time‐Varying Risk–Return Trade‐off in the Stock Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 623-650, June.
  14. Ralph S. J. Koijen & Tomas J. Philipson & Harald Uhlig, 2016. "Financial Health Economics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 195-242, January.
  15. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert & Wang, Zijun & Yang, Jian, 2009. "Is the Value Premium a Proxy for Time-Varying Investment Opportunities? Some Time-Series Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 133-154, February.
  16. Ali K. Ozdagli, 2012. "Financial Leverage, Corporate Investment, and Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(4), pages 1033-1069.
  17. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Krishna Rao & Johannes Stroebel & Andreas Weber & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2021. "Climate Change and Long-Run Discount Rates: Evidence from Real Estate [Abrupt climate change]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(8), pages 3527-3571.
  18. Curatola, Giuliano, 2015. "Loss aversion, habit formation and the term structures of equity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 103-122.
  19. Borovička, Jaroslav & Hansen, Lars Peter, 2014. "Examining macroeconomic models through the lens of asset pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 67-90.
  20. Fukuta, Yuichi & Yamane, Akiko, 2015. "Value premium and implied equity duration in the Japanese stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 102-121.
  21. Eisenbach, Thomas M. & Schmalz, Martin C., 2016. "Anxiety in the face of risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 414-426.
  22. Jessica A. Wachter & Yicheng Zhu, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Announcement Premium," NBER Working Papers 24432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Risk Pricing over Alternative Investment Horizons," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1571-1611, Elsevier.
  24. Ozdagli, Ali & Velikov, Mihail, 2020. "Show me the money: The monetary policy risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 320-339.
  25. Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2016. "Asset Pricing in the Frequency Domain: Theory and Empirics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(8), pages 2029-2068.
  26. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
  27. Borovička, Jaroslav & Hansen, Lars Peter, 2014. "Examining macroeconomic models through the lens of asset pricing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 67-90.
  28. Hanno Lustig, "undated". "Exploring the Link between Housing and the Value Premium (joint with Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 389, UCLA Department of Economics.
  29. Bansal, Ravi & Miller, Shane & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2021. "The term structure of equity risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1209-1228.
  30. Novy-Marx, Robert, 2013. "The other side of value: The gross profitability premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-28.
  31. Leonid Kogan & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2012. "A Theory of Firm Characteristics and Stock Returns: The Role of Investment-Specific Shocks," NBER Working Papers 17975, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. van Binsbergen, Jules & Hueskes, Wouter & Koijen, Ralph & Vrugt, Evert, 2013. "Equity yields," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 503-519.
    • Jules H. van Binsbergen & Wouter Hueskes & Ralph Koijen & Evert B. Vrugt, 2011. "Equity Yields," NBER Working Papers 17416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Krivenko, Pavel, 2023. "Asset prices in a labor search model with confidence shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  34. Frederico Belo & Jun Li & Xiaoji Lin & Xiaofei Zhao, 2017. "Labor-Force Heterogeneity and Asset Prices: The Importance of Skilled Labor," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(10), pages 3669-3709.
  35. Ali Ozdagli, 2010. "The distress premium puzzle," Working Papers 10-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  36. Damir Filipovi'c & Sander Willems, 2018. "A Term Structure Model for Dividends and Interest Rates," Papers 1803.02249, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
  37. Bekaert, Geert & Engstrom, Eric & Grenadier, Steven R., 2010. "Stock and bond returns with Moody Investors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 867-894, December.
  38. Lettau, Martin & Wachter, Jessica A., 2011. "The term structures of equity and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 90-113, July.
  39. Backus, David & Boyarchenko, Nina & Chernov, Mikhail, 2018. "Term structures of asset prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 1-23.
  40. Matthijs Breugem & Stefano Colonello & Roberto Marfè & Francesca Zucchi, 2020. "Dynamic Equity Slope," Working Papers 2020:21, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  41. Lars Peter Hansen & José A. Scheinkman, 2009. "Long-Term Risk: An Operator Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(1), pages 177-234, January.
  42. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2016. "No‐Bubble Condition: Model‐Free Tests in Housing Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1047-1091, May.
  43. Antonio E. Bernardo & Bhagwan Chowdhry & Amit Goyal, 2007. "Growth Options, Beta, and the Cost of Capital," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 36(2), pages 1-13, July.
  44. Croce, Mariano & Ai, Hengjie & Li, Kai & Diercks, Anthony, 2018. "News Shocks and the Production-Based Term Structure of Equity Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 12661, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  45. Jessica A. Wachter, 2013. "Can Time-Varying Risk of Rare Disasters Explain Aggregate Stock Market Volatility?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 68(3), pages 987-1035, June.
  46. Weber, Michael, 2018. "Cash flow duration and the term structure of equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 486-503.
  47. Söhnke M. Bartram & Harald Lohre & Peter F. Pope & Ananthalakshmi Ranganathan, 2021. "Navigating the factor zoo around the world: an institutional investor perspective," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(5), pages 655-703, July.
  48. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Westerlund, Joakim, 2014. "Does cash flow predict returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 230-236.
  49. Curatola, Giuliano, 2016. "Optimal consumption and portfolio choice with loss aversion," SAFE Working Paper Series 130, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  50. Jaroslav Borovička & Mark Hendricks & José A. Scheinkman, 2011. "Risk-Price Dynamics," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 3-65, Winter.
    • Jaroslav Borovička & Lars Peter Hansen & Mark Hendricks & José A. Scheinkman, 2009. "Risk Price Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 15506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Lars Peter Hansen & Jaroslav BoroviÄ ka & Mark Hendricks & José A. Scheinkman, 2010. "Risk Price Dynamics," Working Papers 2010-004, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    • Jaroslav Borovicka & Lars Peter Hansen & Mark Hendricks & Jose A. Scheinkman, 2009. "Risk Price Dynamics," Working Papers 1393, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Econometric Research Program..
  51. Carmelo Giaccotto & Erasmo Giambona & Yanhui Zhao, 2021. "Short-Term and Long-Term Discount Rates For Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 493-524, October.
  52. Barinov, Alexander, 2023. "Profitability anomaly and aggregate volatility risk," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
  53. Rıza Demirer & Shrikant P. Jategaonkar, 2013. "The conditional relation between dispersion and return," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(3), pages 125-134, September.
  54. Jianfeng Yu, 2009. "The Long and the Short of Asset Prices: Using Long Run Consumption-Return Correlations to Test Asset Pricing Models," 2009 Meeting Papers 56, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  55. Andrei, Daniel & Carlin, Bruce I., 2023. "Schumpeterian competition in a Lucas economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
  56. Pierlauro Lopez, 2021. "Welfare Implications of Asset Pricing Facts: Should Central Banks Fill Gaps or Remove Volatility?," Working Papers 21-16R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 16 May 2023.
  57. Bakshi, Gurdip & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2012. "Variance bounds on the permanent and transitory components of stochastic discount factors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 191-208.
  58. Gonçalves, Andrei S., 2021. "The short duration premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 919-945.
  59. Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani, 2015. "Price-Dividend Ratio Factor Proxies for Long-Run Risks," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(1), pages 1-47.
  60. Chen, Huafeng (Jason), 2011. "Firm life expectancy and the heterogeneity of the book-to-market effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 402-423, May.
  61. Møller, Stig Vinther, 2009. "Habit persistence: Explaining cross-sectional variation in returns and time-varying expected returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 525-536, September.
  62. Lars Peter Hansen & John C. Heaton & Nan Li, 2008. "Consumption Strikes Back? Measuring Long-Run Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(2), pages 260-302, April.
  63. Hasler, Michael & Marfè, Roberto, 2016. "Disaster recovery and the term structure of dividend strips," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 116-134.
  64. Frederico Belo & Xiaoji Lin & Fan Yang, 2019. "External Equity Financing Shocks, Financial Flows, and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(9), pages 3500-3543.
  65. Ho, Kin-Yip & An, Jiyoun, 2020. "Decomposing the value premium: The role of intangible information in the Chinese stock market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
  66. Bakshi, Gurdip & Skoulakis, Georgios, 2010. "Do subjective expectations explain asset pricing puzzles?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 462-477, December.
  67. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Lustig, Hanno & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2017. "The cross-section and time series of stock and bond returns," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 50-69.
  68. Roberto Marfè, 2015. "Labor Rigidity and the Dynamics of the Value Premium," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 429, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  69. Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel, 2014. "Very long-run discount rates," Globalization Institute Working Papers 182, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  70. Chyi-Lun Chiou, 2015. "Understanding the Cash Flow-Fundamental Ratio," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(1), pages 148-157.
  71. Hongye Guo & Jessica A. Wachter, 2019. ""Superstitious" Investors," NBER Working Papers 25603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2005. "Cash-Flow Risk, Discount Risk, and the Value Premium," NBER Working Papers 11816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  73. Timothy Christensen, 2014. "Nonparametric Stochastic Discount Factor Decomposition," Papers 1412.4428, arXiv.org, revised May 2017.
  74. He, Yunhao & Leippold, Markus, 2020. "Short-run risk, business cycle, and the value premium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  75. Ravi Jagannathan & Srikant Marakani & Hitoshi Takehara & Yong Wang, 2012. "Calendar Cycles, Infrequent Decisions, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 507-522, March.
  76. Roberto Marfè, 2016. "Labor Rigidity, In ation Risk and Bond Returns," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 461, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
  77. Gollier, Christian, 2016. "Evaluation of long-dated assets: The role of parameter uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 66-83.
  78. Bakshi, Gurdip & Chabi-Yo, Fousseni, 2011. "Variance Bounds on the Permanent and Transitory Components of Stochastic Discount Factors," Working Paper Series 2011-11, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
  79. Giaccotto, Carmelo & Lin, Xiao & Zhao, Yanhui, 2020. "Term structure of discount rates for firms in the insurance industry," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 147-158.
  80. M. Max Croce & Tatyana Marchuk & Christian Schlag, 2019. "The Leading Premium," NBER Working Papers 25633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  81. Ming Zeng & Guihai Zhao, 2022. "Expectation-Driven Term Structure of Equity and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 22-21, Bank of Canada.
  82. Francis In & Sangbae Kim, 2012. "An Introduction to Wavelet Theory in Finance:A Wavelet Multiscale Approach," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8431, January.
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  86. Schröder, David & Esterer, Florian, 2012. "A new measure of equity duration: The duration-based explanation of the value premium revisited," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62077, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  87. John H. Cochrane, 2017. "Macro-Finance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(3), pages 945-985.
  88. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson & Robert Barro & José Ursúa, 2013. "Crises and Recoveries in an Empirical Model of Consumption Disasters," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 35-74, July.
  89. Trond Døskeland, 2007. "Strategic asset allocation for a country: the Norwegian case," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 21(2), pages 167-201, June.
  90. Croce, Mariano M. & Marchuk, Tatyana & Schlag, Christian, 2022. "The leading premium," SAFE Working Paper Series 371, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
  91. van Binsbergen, Jules H. & Koijen, Ralph S.J., 2017. "The term structure of returns: Facts and theory," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-21.
  92. Lars Peter Hansen, 2008. "Modeling the Long Run: Valuation in Dynamic Stochastic Economies," NBER Working Papers 14243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  95. Aydoğan Alti & Paul C. Tetlock, 2014. "Biased Beliefs, Asset Prices, and Investment: A Structural Approach," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 325-361, February.
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  99. Yang, Fan, 2013. "Investment shocks and the commodity basis spread," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 164-184.
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  122. Pierlauro Lopez, 2016. "Welfare Implications of the Term Structure of Returns: Should Central Banks Fill Gaps or Remove Volatility?," 2016 Meeting Papers 742, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  131. Guillaume Coqueret, 2022. "Characteristics-driven returns in equilibrium," Papers 2203.07865, arXiv.org.
  132. Croce, Mariano & Schlag, Christian & Marchuk, Tatyana, 2018. "The Leading Premium," CEPR Discussion Papers 12631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  133. Dou, Winston Wei & Ji, Yan & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Competition, profitability, and discount rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 582-620.
  134. Georgeta Vintila & Elena Alexandra Nenu, 2015. "An Analysis of Determinants of Corporate Financial Performance: Evidence from the Bucharest Stock Exchange Listed Companies," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 732-739.
  135. Nitschka, Thomas, 2006. "Does sensitivity to cashflow news explain the value premium on European stock markets?," Technical Reports 2006,12, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  136. Pier dup Lopez & J. David López-Salido & Francisco Vazquez-Grande, 2015. "Nominal Rigidities and the Term Structures of Equity and Bond Returns," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-64, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  137. Simon Oh & Jessica A. Wachter, 2018. "Cross-sectional Skewness," NBER Working Papers 25113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  138. Andrea Buraschi & Andrea Carnelli, 2014. "Understanding Short†versus Long†Run Risk Premia," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 20(4), pages 714-738, September.
  139. Guidolin, Massimo & Ricci, Andrea, 2020. "Arbitrage risk and a sentiment as causes of persistent mispricing: The European evidence," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-11.
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  141. Hui Guo & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2006. "Does aggregate relative risk aversion change countercyclically over time? evidence from the stock market," Working Papers 2006-047, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  142. Aron A. Gottesman & Gady Jacoby & Huijing Li, 2017. "Value investing or investing in illiquidity? The profitability of contrarian investment strategies, revisited," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-12, December.
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