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Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations: Are Agents Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?

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Cited by:

  1. Stephane Dees & Pedro Soares Brinca, 2013. "Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro area," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 134, pages 1-14.
  2. Gric, Zuzana & Ehrenbergerova, Dominika & Hodula, Martin, 2022. "The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
  3. Easaw, Joshy Z. & Garratt, Dean & Heravi, Saeed M., 2005. "Does consumer sentiment accurately forecast UK household consumption? Are there any comparisons to be made with the US?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 517-532, September.
  4. Assaf, Ata & Charif, Husni & Mokni, Khaled, 2021. "Dynamic connectedness between uncertainty and energy markets: Do investor sentiments matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  5. Chew Lian Chua & Sarantis Tsiaplias, 2009. "Can consumer sentiment and its components forecast Australian GDP and consumption?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(8), pages 698-711.
  6. Kyungbo Park & Hangook Kim & Jeonghwa Cha, 2023. "An Exploratory Study on the Development of a Crisis Index: Focusing on South Korea’s Petroleum Industry," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-24, July.
  7. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2020. "Consumer confidence and consumption expenditure in Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 367-377.
  8. Sarah Brown & Gaia Garino & Karl Taylor, 2008. "Mortgages and Financial Expectations: A Household‐Level Analysis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(3), pages 857-878, January.
  9. W. Anthony Bryant & Joseph Macri, 2005. "Does sentiment explain consumption?," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 29(1), pages 97-110, March.
  10. Karl Taylor & Robert McNabb, 2007. "Business Cycles and the Role of Confidence: Evidence for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(2), pages 185-208, April.
  11. Haozhe Shi & Ziming Jiao, 2023. "The Research on the Relationship between Consumption Downturn and COVID-19—Analysis of Survey Data from China," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 17(12), pages 1-90, February.
  12. Vuchelen, Jef, 2004. "Consumer sentiment and macroeconomic forecasts," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 493-506, August.
  13. Hector H. Sandoval & Anita N. Walsh, 2021. "The role of consumer confidence in forecasting consumption, evidence from Florida," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(2), pages 757-788, October.
  14. Daniel Navarro-Martinez & Graham Loomes & Andrea Isoni & David Butler & Larbi Alaoui, 2018. "Boundedly rational expected utility theory," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 199-223, December.
  15. Juan A. Correa & Raúl Morales & Francisco Parro, 2018. "The Effects of Protests on Agents’ Expectations: Evidence from Students’ Demonstrations in Chile," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 56(3), pages 221-235, September.
  16. Sarantis, Nicholas & Stewart, Chris, 2003. "Liquidity constraints, precautionary saving and aggregate consumption: an international comparison," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 1151-1173, December.
  17. Massenot, Baptiste & Pettinicchi, Yuri, 2019. "Can households see into the future? Survey evidence from the Netherlands," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 77-90.
  18. Yeung, Matthew C.H. & Ramasamy, Bala & Chen, Junsong & Paliwoda, Stan, 2013. "Customer satisfaction and consumer expenditure in selected European countries," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 406-416.
  19. Mervyn Allister King, 1993. "Debt Deflation: Theory and Evidence," FMG Discussion Papers dp175, Financial Markets Group.
  20. Christian Gayer & Alessandro Girardi & Andreas Reuter, 2016. "Replacing Judgment by Statistics: Constructing Consumer Confidence Indicators on the basis of Data-driven Techniques. The Case of the Euro Area," Working Papers LuissLab 16125, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
  21. Scott, Andrew, 2000. "Optimal consumption when capital markets are imperfect," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 65-70, January.
  22. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2016. "Determinants of Consumer Sentiment Over Business Cycles: Evidence from the US Surveys of Consumers," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(2), pages 187-215, December.
  23. Brigitte Desroches & Marc-André Gosselin, 2002. "The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence Indexes in the United States," Staff Working Papers 02-22, Bank of Canada.
  24. Andrzej Cieslik & Mahdi Ghodsi, 2021. "Economic sentiment indicators and foreign direct investment: Empirical evidence from European Union countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 168, pages 56-75.
  25. Caglayan, Mustafa & Xu, Bing, 2016. "Sentiment volatility and bank lending behavior," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 107-120.
  26. Yoko Mimura, 2014. "The Relationship Between Life Satisfaction Among Wives and Financial Preparedness of Households in Japan," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 532-541, December.
  27. Galariotis, Emilios & Makrichoriti, Panagiota & Spyrou, Spyros, 2018. "The impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on expectations and sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-20.
  28. Khoon Lek Goh, 2003. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Consumption Expenditure in New Zealand?," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/22, New Zealand Treasury.
  29. Hollanders, D.A. & Vliegenthart, R., 2009. "The Influence of Negative Newspaper Coverage on Consumer Confidence : The Dutch Case," Discussion Paper 2009-55, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  30. Anastasiou, Dimitris & Kallandranis, Christos & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2022. "Borrower discouragement prevalence for Eurozone SMEs: Investigating the impact of economic sentiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 161-171.
  31. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2006. "Financial expectations, consumption and saving: a microeconomic analysis," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 313-338, August.
  32. Dudek, Sławomir, 2008. "Consumer Survey Data and short-term forecasting of households consumption expenditures in Poland," MPRA Paper 19818, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Li, Cheng, 2011. "Consumer expectation and output growth: The case of China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 298-300.
  34. Berg Lennart & Bergström Reinhold, 1996. "Consumer Confidence and Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1996:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  35. Bertrand Marc & Andreas Reuter, 2018. "The Effect of Elections on Consumer Confidence in Europe," European Economy - Discussion Papers 090, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  36. Gizelis, Demetrios & Chowdhury, Shah, 2016. "Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns: Evidence from the Athens Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 71243, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  37. Lucia F. Dunn & Ida A. Mirzaie, 2006. "Turns in Consumer Confidence: An Information Advantage Linked to Manufacturing," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 44(2), pages 343-351, April.
  38. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "Global Integration of Central and Eastern European Financial Markets—The Role of Economic Sentiments," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 137-157, February.
  39. Erik Kole & Liesbeth Noordegraaf-Eelens & Bas Vringer, 2019. "Cognitive Biases and Consumer Sentiment," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-031/I, Tinbergen Institute, revised 21 Mar 2023.
  40. King, Mervyn, 1993. "Debt inflation: theory and evidence," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119181, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  41. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Canzian, Giulia, 2011. "The psychology of inflation, monetary policy and macroeconomic instability," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 660-670.
  42. Merella, Vincenzo & Satchell, Stephen E., 2022. "By force of confidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  43. Khoon Lek Goh & Richard Downing, 2002. "Modelling New Zealand Consumption Expenditure over the 1990s," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/19, New Zealand Treasury.
  44. Tufan Ekici, 2016. "Subjective Financial Distress in the Formation of Consumer Confidence: Evidence from Novel Household Data," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 11-36.
  45. Roos, Michael W.M., 2008. "Willingness to consume and ability to consume," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-402, May.
  46. Giancarlo Bruno, 2014. "Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 37-52, February.
  47. Parise, Gerald F., 1994. "Permanent income hypothesis and the cost of adjustment," ISU General Staff Papers 1994010108000012303, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  48. E. Kilic & S. Cankaya, 2016. "Consumer confidence and economic activity: a factor augmented VAR approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(32), pages 3062-3080, July.
  49. Holland, Allison & Scott, Andrew, 1998. "The Determinants of UK Business Cycles," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1067-1092, July.
  50. Guo, Yumei & He, Shan, 2020. "Does confidence matter for economic growth? An analysis from the perspective of policy effectiveness," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1-19.
  51. Brigitte Desroches & Marc‐André Gosselin, 2004. "Evaluating Threshold Effects in Consumer Sentiment," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 70(4), pages 942-952, April.
  52. Acuña, Guillermo, 2017. "Evaluación de la capacidad predictiva del índice de percepción del consumidor [Assessing the predictive power of the consumer perception index]," MPRA Paper 83154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  53. Lorenzo Pozzi, 2015. "The Time‐Varying Volatility of Earnings and Aggregate Consumption Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 551-580, June.
  54. K. H. McIntyre, 2007. "Reconciling Consumer Confidence and Permanent Income Consumption," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 257-275, Spring.
  55. Anastasiou, Dimitrios & Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Giannoulakis, Stelios, 2021. "Perceived vs actual financial crisis and bank credit standards: Is there any indication of self-fulfilling prophecy?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  56. Yates Nicholas A, 2009. "Revisiting the Tobin Tax, in the Context of Development and the Financial Crisis," The Law and Development Review, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 257-282, November.
  57. Beetsma, Roel & Furtuna, Oana & Giuliodori, Massimo, 2018. "Revenue- versus spending-based consolidation plans: the role of follow-up," Working Paper Series 2178, European Central Bank.
  58. Vuchelen, Jef, 1995. "Political events and consumer confidence in Belgium," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 563-579, December.
  59. Falk, Armin & Dohmen, Thomas J & Sunde, Uwe & Huffman, David, 2006. "Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Perceptions and Expectations - The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment," CEPR Discussion Papers 5851, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  60. John A. Cotsomitis & Andy C. C. Kwan, 2006. "Can Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? Evidence from the European Commission Business and Consumer Surveys," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 597-610, January.
  61. Dohmen, Thomas & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David B. & Sunde, Uwe, 2006. "Seemingly Irrelevant Events Affect Economic Perceptions and Expectations: The FIFA World Cup 2006 as a Natural Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 2275, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  62. Willem Vanlaer & Samantha Bielen & Wim Marneffe, 2020. "Consumer Confidence and Household Saving Behaviors: A Cross-Country Empirical Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 677-721, January.
  63. Döhrn, Roland & Mitze, Timo & Schmidt, Torsten & Tauchmann, Harald & Vosen, Simeon, 2010. "Analyse und Prognose des Spar- und Konsumverhaltens privater Haushalte: Endbericht - November 2010," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 69982.
  64. Marco Malgarini & Patrizia Margani, 2005. "Psychology, consumer sentiment and household expenditures: a disaggregated analysis," ISAE Working Papers 58, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  65. Tolar, Martin Michael, 1997. "A behavioral model of nondurable consumption expenditure," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 291-302.
  66. Martin Sommer & Christopher Carroll, 2004. "Epidemiological expectations and consumption dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 92, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  67. Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić & Mirjana Čižmešija, 2022. "Recent Revision of the European Consumer Confidence Indicator: Is There any additional Space for Improvement?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(3), pages 845-863, February.
  68. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Cassou, Steven P., 2016. "Does consumer confidence affect durable goods spending during bad and good economic times equally?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 86-97.
  69. Ramalho, Esmeralda A. & Caleiro, António & Dionfsio, Andreia, 2011. "Explaining consumer confidence in Portugal," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 25-32, February.
  70. Daragh Clancy & Lorenzo Ricci, 2022. "Economic sentiments and international risk sharing," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 208-229.
  71. David Begg & Stephany Griffith-Jones, 1998. "Swinging since the 60's: Fluctuations in UK Saving and Lessons for Latin America," Research Department Publications 3032, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  72. Eleni Zafeiriou & Constantinos Katrakilidis & Chrysanthi Pegiou, 2019. "Consumer Confidence on Heating Oil Prices: An Empirical Study of their Relationship for European Union in a Nonlinear Framework," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(1), pages 63-90.
  73. Lorenzo Pozzi, 2011. "The Time-Varying Volatility of Earnings and Aggregate Precautionary Savings," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-144/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  74. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  75. Hector H. Sandoval & Anita N. Walsh, 2024. "Sentiments and spending intentions: Evidence from Florida," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 62(3), pages 1046-1073, July.
  76. Disney, Richard & Henley, Andrew & Stears, Gary, 2002. "Housing costs, house price shocks and savings behaviour among older households in Britain," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 607-625, September.
  77. Hollanders, D.A. & Vliegenthart, R., 2009. "The Influence of Negative Newspaper Coverage on Consumer Confidence : The Dutch Case," Other publications TiSEM fc1678e6-b3ab-4d80-8c87-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  78. Aloisio Campelo & Viviane Seda Bittencourt & Marco Malgarini, 2020. "Consumers Confidence and Households Consumption in Brazil: Evidence from the FGV Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 16(1), pages 19-34, April.
  79. Claudio Soto G., 2004. "Unemployment and Consumption in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 7(1), pages 31-50, April.
  80. Easaw, Joshy & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2008. "The cyclical nature of Consumer Sentiments Indices in the US and UK," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1994-1998, October.
  81. Ansgar Belke & Joscha Beckmann & Michael Kühl, 2010. "Global Integration of Central and Eastern European Financial Markets – The Role of Economic Sentiments," Ruhr Economic Papers 0174, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  82. Kallandranis Christos & Karidis Socrates, 2014. "Assessing the Effect of the Consumer-Voter Sentiment on Tiebout-Like Migration: The EU 27 Case," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 31-55, June.
  83. Wei-fong Pan, 2018. "Unemployment and confidence in Canada: Evidence from national and regional level data," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(2), pages 1111-1123.
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  86. Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali & Azad, A.S.M. Sohel & Poon, Wai Ching & Safiullah, Md, 2023. "Is there a CSI-leverage nexus?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
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  119. Simona Malovaná & Martin Hodula & Jan Frait, 2021. "What Does Really Drive Consumer Confidence?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 885-913, June.
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