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Perceived vs actual financial crisis and bank credit standards: is there any indication of self-fulfilling prophecy?

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  • Dimitrios Anastasiou

    (Athens University of Economics and Business and Alpha Bank)

  • Zacharias Bragoudakis

    (Bank of Greece)

  • Stelios Giannoulakis

    (Athens University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

We link senior banks loan officers’ responses regarding their decisions for bank credit standards, from successive surveys from the European Bank Lending Survey to investigate two important issues. First, we examine the relationship between bank credit standards (CS) and perceived and actual financial crisis. Second, we investigate whether the notion of the self-fulfilling prophecy is applicable in the case of the 2008 global financial crisis. In particular, the second main research question that we try to answer is whether the perceived crisis (as implied by the Google search query “financial crisis”) contributed to the acceleration of the outburst of the actual crisis. We find that both perceived and actual financial crisis affect senior bank loan officers’ credit standards, with the actual crisis having the greatest impact. These results are consistent both in the short and in the long run. Finally, by putting forward a binary choice model we find sufficient evidence to support the Self-Fulfilling Prophecy notion.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitrios Anastasiou & Zacharias Bragoudakis & Stelios Giannoulakis, 2020. "Perceived vs actual financial crisis and bank credit standards: is there any indication of self-fulfilling prophecy?," Working Papers 277, Bank of Greece.
  • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:277
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    1. Anastasiou, Dimitrios & Drakos, Konstantinos, 2021. "European depositors’ behavior and crisis sentiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 117-136.
    2. Panagiotis Lazaris & Anastasios Petropoulos & Vasileios Siakoulis & Evangelos Stavroulakis & Nikolaos Vlachogiannakis, 2021. "Interest rate pass through in the deposit and loan products provided by Greek banks," Working Papers 287, Bank of Greece.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit Standards; Financial Crisis; Google Trends; Crisis Sentiment; Self-Fulfilling Prophecy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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