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The Diffusion of Military Dictatorships


  • Raul Caruso

    () (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart)

  • Ilaria Petrarca

    () (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

  • Roberto Ricciuti

    () (Department of Economics (University of Verona))


We show the existence of a diffusion process of military dictatorships in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1972 through 2007, using panel data probit estimation and a Markov chain transition model. This process is shortly-lived, since we observe an overall trend that reduces the number of military regimes. We also find that Manufacturing share of GDP, Primary share of GDP positively affect the probability of military dictatorship, and Openness to trade, whereas the British colonial origin are negatively associated.

Suggested Citation

  • Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2012. "The Diffusion of Military Dictatorships," Working Papers 35/2012, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:ver:wpaper:35/2012

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Raul Caruso & Jacopo Costa & Roberto Ricciuti, 2011. "The probability of military rule in Africa, 1970-2007," Working Papers 2011/26, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    2. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2001. "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1369-1401, December.
    3. Raul Caruso, 2010. "Butter, Guns And Ice-Cream Theory And Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 269-283.
    4. Timothy Besley & James A. Robinson, 2010. "Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Civilian Control Over the Military," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 655-663, 04-05.
    5. Zaryab Iqbal & Harvey Starr, 2008. "Bad Neighbors: Failed States and Their Consequences," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(4), pages 315-331, September.
    6. Faten Ghosn & Glenn Palmer & Stuart A. Bremer, 2004. "The MID3 Data Set, 1993—2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 21(2), pages 133-154, April.
    7. Montalvo, Jose G. & Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2005. "Ethnic diversity and economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 293-323, April.
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    More about this item


    Military rule; Africa; diffusion of government institutions.;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • P48 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Political Economy; Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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