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The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970-2007

  • Jacopo Costa


    (University of Florence)

  • Raul Caruso


    (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart)

  • Roberto Ricciuti


    (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

In this paper we empirically analyze the socio-economic determinants of the existence of military dictatorships in Africa. A recent literature in political economy analyses the relationship between the civil undemocratic government and the military as an agency problem: the civilian government needs the army to avoid internal violence, but a larger army reduces the opportunity-cost for the military to run a coup d’état and seize power. These papers derive three main causes of military rule: income inequality, ethnic fractionalization, and external threat. We empirically analyze these issues by estimating the probability that a country experiences a military rule. We consider 48 African countries over the period 1970-2007.

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Paper provided by University of Verona, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 17/2012.

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Date of creation: May 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ver:wpaper:17/2012
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  1. Timothy J. Besley & Torsten Persson, 2009. "State Capacity, Conflict and Development," NBER Working Papers 15088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Christa N. Brunnschweiler & Erwin H. Bulte, 2009. "Natural resources and violent conflict: resource abundance, dependence, and the onset of civil wars," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 651-674, October.
  3. Faten Ghosn & Glenn Palmer & Stuart A. Bremer, 2004. "The MID3 Data Set, 1993—2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 21(2), pages 133-154, April.
  4. Raul Caruso, 2004. "A Trade Institution as a Peaceful Institution?," Others 0406003, EconWPA, revised 15 Dec 2004.
  5. Roberto Ricciuti & Jacopo Costa, 2010. "State capacity, manufacturing and civil conflict," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(4), pages 3038-3043.
  6. Timothy Besley & James A. Robinson, 2010. "Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Civilian Control Over the Military," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 655-663, 04-05.
  7. Acemoglu,Daron & Robinson,James A., 2006. "Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521855266, October.
  8. Raul Caruso, 2010. "Butter, Guns And Ice-Cream Theory And Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 269-283.
  9. John Thornton & Fabian Bornhorst & Sanjeev Gupta, 2008. "Natural Resource Endowments, Governance, and the Domestic Revenue Effort: Evidence from a Panel of Countries," IMF Working Papers 08/170, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Silje Aslaksen & Ragnar Torvik, 2006. "A Theory of Civil Conflict and Democracy in Rentier States," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(4), pages 571-585, December.
  11. Olaf J. de Groot, 2011. "Spillovers of Institutional Change in Africa," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 410-426, 08.
  12. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2008. "Wars and State Capacity," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 522-530, 04-05.
  13. Gonzalez, Francisco M., 2007. "Effective property rights, conflict and growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 127-139, November.
  14. Paul Collier & Frederick van der Ploeg & Michael Spence & Anthony J Venables, 2009. "Managing Resource Revenues in Developing Economies," OxCarre Working Papers 015, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
  15. Thomas P. Tanger�s & Nils-Petter Lagerlöf, 2009. "Ethnic Diversity, Civil War and Redistribution," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 111(1), pages 1-27, 03.
  16. Caruso, Raul & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The socio-economic determinants of terrorism and political violence in Western Europe (1994–2007)," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages S37-S49.
  17. Martin C. McGuire & Mancur Olson Jr., 1996. "The Economics of Autocracy and Majority Rule: The Invisible Hand and the Use of Force," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 72-96, March.
  18. Kimenyi, Mwangi S. & Mbaku, John Mukum, 1996. "Rents, military elites, and political democracy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 699-708, April.
  19. Jose Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2010. "Ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 123-143, April.
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