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The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970-2007

Author

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  • Jacopo Costa

    (University of Florence)

  • Raul Caruso

    (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart)

  • Roberto Ricciuti

    (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

Abstract

In this paper we empirically analyze the socio-economic determinants of the existence of military dictatorships in Africa. A recent literature in political economy analyses the relationship between the civil undemocratic government and the military as an agency problem: the civilian government needs the army to avoid internal violence, but a larger army reduces the opportunity-cost for the military to run a coup d’état and seize power. These papers derive three main causes of military rule: income inequality, ethnic fractionalization, and external threat. We empirically analyze these issues by estimating the probability that a country experiences a military rule. We consider 48 African countries over the period 1970-2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacopo Costa & Raul Caruso & Roberto Ricciuti, 2012. "The Probability of Military Rule in Africa, 1970-2007," Working Papers 17/2012, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ver:wpaper:17/2012
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    1. Caruso, Raul & Petrarca , Ilaria & Ricciuti, Roberto, 2013. "Is there a Diffusion of Military Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa? Empirical Evidence in the Period 1972-2007," NEPS Working Papers 4/2013, Network of European Peace Scientists.
    2. Raul Caruso & Nicola Pontarollo & Roberto Ricciuti, 2020. "Regional diffusion of military regimes in sub‐Saharan Africa," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(1), pages 225-244, February.
    3. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2015. "Spillover of Military Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 123(4), pages 381-393.
    4. Tania Masi & Roberto Ricciuti, 2016. "Oil discoveries and democracy," WIDER Working Paper Series 057, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2012. "The Diffusion of Military Dictatorships," Working Papers 35/2012, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    6. Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2014. "Spatial Concentration of Military Dictatorships in Sub-Saharan Africa (1977-2007)," CESifo Working Paper Series 4802, CESifo.
    7. Tania Masi & Roberto Ricciuti, 2016. "Oil discoveries and democracy," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2016-57, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dictatorship; Africa;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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