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Spatial Concentration of Military Dictatorships in Sub-Saharan Africa (1977-2007)

  • Raul Caruso
  • Ilaria Petrarca
  • Roberto Ricciuti

We empirically investigate the existence of spatial autocorrelation between military dictatorships in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1977 through 2007. We apply a Bayesian SAR probit regression, extended to a pooled model. We find a robust and positive spatial autocorrelation coefficient, which shows a spatial concentration of military autocracies. In particular, in the aftermath of Cold War military regimes cluster in the central region. Among covariates, interestingly, foreign aid shows a positive association with military regimes during the Cold War while it turns to exhibit a negative association after 1989. With regard to other economic covariates, we find that: a) there is a negative association between GDP per capita and the existence of a military autocracy; b) a larger manufacturing sector is associated with a smaller probability of a military rule; c) a larger mining sector is associated with a higher likelihood of military rules; d) trade openness reduces the likelihood of militarization.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2014/wp-cesifo-2014-05/cesifo1_wp4802.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4802.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4802
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