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The probability of military rule in Africa, 1970-2007

  • Raul Caruso

    (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart)

  • Jacopo Costa

    (University of Florence)

  • Roberto Ricciuti

    ()

    (University of Verona & CESifo)

In this paper we empirically analyze the socio-economic determinants of the existence of military dictatorships in Africa. A recent literature in political economy analyses the relationship between the civil undemocratic government and the military as an agency problem: the civilian government needs the army to avoid internal violence, but a larger army reduces the opportunity-cost for the military to run a coup d’état and seize power. These papers derive three main causes of military rule: income inequality, ethnic fractionalization, and external threat. We empirically analyze these issues by estimating the probability that a country experiences a military rule. We consider 48 African countries over the period 1970-2007.

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Paper provided by Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB) in its series Working Papers with number 2011/26.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ieb:wpaper:2011/11/doc2011-26
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