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Spillover of Military Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Raul Caruso

    (Institute of Economic Policy, Catholic University of the Sacred Heart)

  • Ilaria Petrarca

    (Veneto banca)

  • Roberto Ricciuti

    (Department of Economics, University of Verona)

Abstract

We analyse institutional spillover in military regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa, from 1972 through 2007, by means of a Markov chain transition model. This method allows us to study in a unified framework both the occurrence and the persistence of military dictatorships. We find a robust spatial autocorrelation between military governments in the short-run, but this process is shortly lived, since we observe an overall trend that reduces the number of military regimes. We find some interesting asymmetries between transition and persistence results, in particular for GDP and external hostility.

Suggested Citation

  • Raul Caruso & Ilaria Petrarca & Roberto Ricciuti, 2015. "Spillover of Military Regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 123(4), pages 381-393.
    • Handle: RePEc:vep:journl:y:2015:v:123:i:4:p:381-393
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olaf J. de Groot, 2011. "Spillovers of Institutional Change in Africa," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(3), pages 410-426, August.
    2. Raul Caruso & Jacopo Costa & Roberto Ricciuti, 2011. "The probability of military rule in Africa, 1970-2007," Working Papers 2011/26, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    3. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2008. "Wars and State Capacity," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 522-530, 04-05.
    4. Timothy Besley & Torsten Persson, 2009. "Repression or Civil War?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 292-297, May.
    5. Martin Gassebner & Michael J. Lamla & James Raymond Vreeland, 2013. "Extreme Bounds of Democracy," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 57(2), pages 171-197, April.
    6. Timothy Besley & James A. Robinson, 2010. "Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes? Civilian Control Over the Military," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 8(2-3), pages 655-663, 04-05.
    7. José Cheibub & Jennifer Gandhi & James Vreeland, 2010. "Democracy and dictatorship revisited," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 67-101, April.
    8. Daron Acemoglu & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2010. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-42, January.
    9. Wintrobe,Ronald, 2000. "The Political Economy of Dictatorship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521794497, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • N47 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Africa; Oceania

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