IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sus/susewp/0917.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders

Author

Listed:
  • Sambit Bhattacharyya

    (Department of Economics, University of Sussex)

  • Michael Keller

    (Department of Economics, University of Sussex)

  • Rabah Arezki

    (Research Department, IMF)

Abstract

We investigate how giant and supergiant oil and mineral discoveries shape the political fortunes of national leaders using a large dataset of 1255 leaders in 158 countries over the period 1950 to 2010. We depart from the existing literature by using both ‘single risk’ and ‘multiple risk’ discrete time proportional hazard models. We find that mineral discoveries reduce risk for the incumbent in a ‘single risk model’ especially in a non-election year. In contrast oil discoveries reduce risk disproportionately more for the incumbent in countries with weak political institutions. The effects appear to be induced by actual income or rent rather than income expectations. In a ‘multiple risk model’ oil discovery significantly reduces the risk of losing office via military coup while resource (oil and minerals) discovery in general reduces the risk of resignation. Resource discovery does not seem to have any impact on the risk of election loss.

Suggested Citation

  • Sambit Bhattacharyya & Michael Keller & Rabah Arezki, 2017. "Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders," Working Paper Series 0917, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
  • Handle: RePEc:sus:susewp:0917
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sussex.ac.uk/economics/documents/wps-09-2017.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lei, Yu-Hsiang & Michaels, Guy, 2014. "Do giant oilfield discoveries fuel internal armed conflicts?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 139-157.
    2. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A. Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2017. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(1), pages 103-155.
    3. Wright, Joseph & Frantz, Erica & Geddes, Barbara, 2015. "Oil and Autocratic Regime Survival," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 287-306, April.
    4. Bhattacharyya, Sambit & Hodler, Roland, 2010. "Natural resources, democracy and corruption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 608-621, May.
    5. Anca M. Cotet & Kevin K. Tsui, 2013. "Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross Country Evidence Really Show?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 49-80, January.
    6. Smith, Brock, 2015. "The resource curse exorcised: Evidence from a panel of countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 57-73.
    7. Robinson, James A. & Torvik, Ragnar & Verdier, Thierry, 2006. "Political foundations of the resource curse," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 447-468, April.
    8. Jonathan Isham & Michael Woolcock & Lant Pritchett & Gwen Busby, 2005. "The Varieties of Resource Experience: Natural Resource Export Structures and the Political Economy of Economic Growth," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 19(2), pages 141-174.
    9. Wiji Arulampalam & Robin A. Naylor & Jeremy P. Smith, 2004. "A hazard model of the probability of medical school drop‐out in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(1), pages 157-178, February.
    10. Bhattacharyya, Sambit & Conradie, Louis & Arezki, Rabah, 2017. "Resource discovery and the politics of fiscal decentralization," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 366-382.
    11. Auty, Richard M., 2001. "The political economy of resource-driven growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 839-846, May.
    12. ., 2007. "War and Peace: From the Boer War to Versailles," Chapters, in: Keynes and his Battles, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. James Raymond Vreeland, 2008. "The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 52(3), pages 401-425, June.
    14. Francesco Caselli & Tom Cunningham, 2009. "Leader behaviour and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 628-650, October.
    15. Narendranathan, W & Stewart, Mark B, 1993. "How Does the Benefit Effect Vary as Unemployment Spells Lengthen?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 361-381, Oct.-Dec..
    16. Hodler, Roland, 2006. "The curse of natural resources in fractionalized countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1367-1386, August.
    17. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Paul Collier, 2014. "Public capital in resource rich economies: is there a curse?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 66(1), pages 1-24, January.
    18. Gylfason, Thorvaldur, 2001. "Natural resources, education, and economic development," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 847-859, May.
    19. Philip R. Lane & Aaron Tornell, 1999. "The Voracity Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(1), pages 22-46, March.
    20. Bhattacharyya, Sambit & Hodler, Roland, 2014. "Do Natural Resource Revenues Hinder Financial Development? The Role of Political Institutions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 101-113.
    21. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864.
    22. Anca M. Cotet & Kevin K. Tsui, 2013. "Oil, Growth, and Health: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(4), pages 1107-1137, October.
    23. Sachs, Jeffrey D. & Warner, Andrew M., 2001. "The curse of natural resources," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-6), pages 827-838, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nemera Mamo & Sambit Bhattacharyya, 2018. "Natural Resources and Political Patronage in Africa: An Ethnicity Level Analysis," Working Paper Series 0418, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    2. Mamo, Nemera & Bhattacharyya, Sambit & Moradi, Alexander, 2019. "Intensive and extensive margins of mining and development: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 28-49.
    3. Nemera Gebeyehu Mamo, 2018. "Essays on natural resources in Africa: local economic development, multi-ethnic coalitions and armed conflict," Economics PhD Theses 0518, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Rabah Arezki & Sambit Bhattacharyya & Nemera Mamo, 2015. "Resource Discovery and Conflict in Africa: What do the data show?," OxCarre Working Papers 159, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    5. Keller, Michael, 2020. "Wasted windfalls: Inefficiencies in health care spending in oil rich countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Tania Masi & Antonio Savoia & Kunal Sen, 2018. "Is there a fiscal resource curse? Resource rents, fiscal capacity and political institutions," Global Development Institute Working Paper Series esid-096-18, GDI, The University of Manchester.
    7. Cockx, Lara & Francken, Nathalie, 2016. "Natural resources: A curse on education spending?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 394-408.
    8. Tania Masi & Antonio Savoia & Kunal Sen, 2020. "Is there a fiscal resource curse?: Resource rents, fiscal capacity, and political institutions in developing economies," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-10, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Badeeb, Ramez Abubakr & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Clark, Jeremy, 2017. "The evolution of the natural resource curse thesis: A critical literature survey," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 123-134.
    10. Tania Masi & Antonio Savoia & Kunal Sen, 2020. "Is there a fiscal resource curse? Resource rents, fiscal capacity, and political institutions in developing economies," WIDER Working Paper Series wp2020-10, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Bhattacharyya, Sambit & Conradie, Louis & Arezki, Rabah, 2017. "Resource discovery and the politics of fiscal decentralization," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 366-382.
    12. Ruba A. Aljarallah & Andrew Angus, 2020. "Dilemma of Natural Resource Abundance: A Case Study of Kuwait," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440198, January.
    13. Dauvin, Magali & Guerreiro, David, 2017. "The Paradox of Plenty: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 212-231.
    14. Chi-Swian Wong, 2021. "Science Mapping: A Scientometric Review on Resource Curses, Dutch Diseases, and Conflict Resources during 1993–2020," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-48, July.
    15. Kaznacheev, Peter, 2013. "Resource Rents and Economic Growth: Economic and institutional development in countries with a high share of income from the sale of natural resources. Analysis and recommendations based on internatio," EconStor Research Reports 121950, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    16. Laszlo Szalai, 2018. "Institutions and Resource-driven Development," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 4(1), pages 39-53, June.
    17. Phoebe W. Ishak & Pierre-Guillaume Méon, 2020. "A resource-rich neighbor is a misfortune: The spatial distribution of the resource curse in Brazil," Working Papers CEB 20-001, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    18. Christopher A. Hartwell & Roman Horvath & Eva Horvathova & Olga Popova, 2019. "Democratic Institutions, Natural Resources, and Income Inequality," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(4), pages 531-550, December.
    19. Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Chen, Ting-Cih & Lin, Shu-Chin, 2020. "Does oil drive income inequality? New panel evidence," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 137-152.
    20. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    resource discovery; leaders; political survival;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sus:susewp:0917. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecsusuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: University of Sussex Business School Communications Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecsusuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.