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A hazard model of the probability of medical school drop-out in the UK


  • Wiji Arulampalam
  • Robin A. Naylor
  • Jeremy P. Smith


From individual level longitudinal data for two entire cohorts of medical students in UK universities, we use multilevel models to analyse the probability that an individual student will drop out of medical school. We find that academic preparedness-both in terms of previous subjects studied and levels of attainment therein-is the major influence on withdrawal by medical students. Additionally, males and more mature students are more likely to withdraw than females or younger students respectively. We find evidence that the factors influencing the decision to transfer course differ from those affecting the decision to drop out for other reasons. Copyright 2004 Royal Statistical Society.

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  • Wiji Arulampalam & Robin A. Naylor & Jeremy P. Smith, 2004. "A hazard model of the probability of medical school drop-out in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(1), pages 157-178.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:167:y:2004:i:1:p:157-178

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    Cited by:

    1. Barra, Cristian & Lagravinese, Raffaele & Zotti, Roberto, 2015. "Explaining (in)efficiency in higher education: a comparison of parametric and non-parametric analyses to rank universities," MPRA Paper 67119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Di Pietro, Giorgio & Cutillo, Andrea, 2008. "Degree flexibility and university drop-out: The Italian experience," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 546-555, October.
    3. Hahm, Sabrina & Kluve, Jochen, 2016. "Effects of the Bologna Reform on Educational Outcomes: Micro Evidence from Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 10201, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Agasisti, Tommaso & Barra, Cristian & Zotti, Roberto, 2016. "Evaluating the efficiency of Italian public universities (2008–2011) in presence of (unobserved) heterogeneity," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 47-58.
    5. Kristine Simson, 2015. "Explaining upper secondary school dropout: new evidence on the role of local labor markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1419-1444, June.
    6. Mosler, Karl & Savine, Alexandre, 2004. "Studienaufbau und Studienerfolg von Kölner Volks- und Betriebswirten im Grundstudium," Discussion Papers in Econometrics and Statistics 1/04, University of Cologne, Institute of Econometrics and Statistics.
    7. Zotti, Roberto & Barra, Cristian, 2014. "Human capital development, knowledge spillovers and local growth: Is there a quality effect of university efficiency?," MPRA Paper 60065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Arulampalam, Wiji & Naylor, Robin A. & Smith, Jeremy P., 2005. "Effects of in-class variation and student rank on the probability of withdrawal: cross-section and time-series analysis for UK university students," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 251-262, June.
    9. Ludger Wößmann, 2008. "Efficiency and equity of European education and training policies," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 15(2), pages 199-230, April.
    10. Arulampalam, Wiji & Naylor, Robin & Smith, Jeremy, 2005. "Doctor Who? Who Gets Admission Offers in UK Medical Schools," IZA Discussion Papers 1775, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    11. Tommaso Agasisti & Cristian Barra & Roberto Zotti, 2017. "Research, knowledge transfer and innovation: the effect of Italian universities’ efficiency on the local economic development 2006-2012," Working papers 60, Società Italiana di Economia Pubblica.
    12. Jordá, Vanesa & Alonso, José M., 2017. "New Estimates on Educational Attainment Using a Continuous Approach (1970–2010)," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 281-293.
    13. Vanesa Jorda & Miguel Niño-Zarazúa, 2016. "Global inequality: How large is the effect of top incomes?," WIDER Working Paper Series 094, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Hahm, Sabrina & Kluve, Jochen, 2016. "Effects of the Bologna Reform on educational outcomes: Micro evidence from Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 639, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    15. Marialuisa Restaino, 2008. "Dropping out of University of Salerno: a survival approach," Working Papers 3_193, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Salerno.
    16. Carolina Castagnetti & Luisa Rosti, 2010. "The Gender Gap in Academic Achievements of Italian Graduates," Quaderni di Dipartimento 118, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Quantitative Methods.
    17. Castagnetti, Carolina & Rosti, Luisa, 2009. "Effort allocation in tournaments: The effect of gender on academic performance in Italian universities," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 357-369, June.
    18. Hahm, Sabrina & Kluve, Jochen, 2017. "Better with Bologna? Tertiary education reform and student outcomes," Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168053, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Barra, Cristian & Zotti, Roberto, 2014. "Handling negative data using Data Envelopment Analysis: a directional distance approach applied to higher education," MPRA Paper 55570, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Zotti, Roberto & Barra, Cristian, 2014. "How students' exogenous characteristics affect faculties’ inefficiency. A heteroscedastic stochastic frontier approach," MPRA Paper 54011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Mirjam Strupler Leiser & Stefan C. Wolter, 2015. "Reducing university dropout rates with entrance tests – self-fulfilling prophecy or high quality students," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0108, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    22. Sambit Bhattacharyya & Michael Keller & Rabah Arezki, 2017. "Resource Discovery and the Political Fortunes of National Leaders," Working Paper Series 0917, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.

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