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The Janus-faced nature of debt : results form a data driven cointegrated SVAR approach

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  • Mattia Guerini

    (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna)

  • Alessio Moneta
  • Mauro Napoletano

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Andrea Roventini

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the causal effects of public and private debts on U.S. output dynamics. We estimate a battery of Cointegrated Structural Vector Autoregressive models, and we identify structural shocks by employing Independent Component Analysis, a data-driven technique which avoids ad-hoc identification choices. The econometric results suggest that the impact of debt on economic activity is Janus-faced. Public debt shocks have positive and persistent influence on economic activity. In contrast, rising private debt has a milder positive impact on GDP, but it fades out over time. The analysis of the possible transmission mechanisms reveals that public debt crowds in private consumption and investment. In contrast, mortgage debt fuels consumption and output in the short-run, but shrinks them in the medium-run.

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  • Mattia Guerini & Alessio Moneta & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "The Janus-faced nature of debt : results form a data driven cointegrated SVAR approach," Sciences Po publications 2017-02, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3l2vounfl99nvqsr0k24sn3k5l
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    2. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2019. "What if supply-side policies are not enough? The perverse interaction of flexibility and austerity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 360-388.
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    5. Alessio Moneta & Gianluca Pallante, 2020. "Identification of Structural VAR Models via Independent Component Analysis: A Performance Evaluation Study," LEM Papers Series 2020/24, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public and Private Debt; Business Cycle Fluctuations; Independant component analysis; SVAR identification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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