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Does population diversity matter for economic development in the very long-term? Historic migration, diversity and county wealt

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  • Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés
  • Von Berlepsch, Viola

Abstract

Does population diversity matter for economic development in the long-run? Does the impact of diversity differ over time? This paper traces the short-, medium-, and long-term economic impact of population diversity resulting from the big migration waves of the late 19th and early 20th centuries to the United States (US). Using census data from 1880, 1900, and 1910, the settlement pattern of migrants across the counties of the 48 US continental states is tracked in order to construct measures of population fractionalisation and polarisation at county level. Factors which may have influenced both the individual settlement decision at the time of migration as well as county-level economic development in recent years are controlled for. The results of the analysis show that high levels of population fractionalisation have a strong and positive influence on economic development in the short-, medium-, and long-run. High levels of polarisation, by contrast, undermine development. Despite a stronger effect on income levels in the first 30 years, these relationships are found to be extremely long-lasting: counties with a more heterogeneous population composition over 130 years ago are significantly richer today, whereas counties that were strongly polarised at the time of the migration waves have endured persistent negative economic effects.

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  • Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés & Von Berlepsch, Viola, 2017. "Does population diversity matter for economic development in the very long-term? Historic migration, diversity and county wealt," CEPR Discussion Papers 12347, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12347
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Diversity; Fractionalisation; Polarisation; Economic development; Counties; Usa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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