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How Much War Will we see?

Author

Listed:
  • IBRAHIM ELBADAWI

    (World Bank)

  • NICHOLAS SAMBANIS

    (Department of Political Science Yale University)

Abstract

Quantitative studies of civil war have focused on war initiation (onset) or war duration and termination and produced important insights into these processes. An empirical analysis of civil war prevalence is used to show that the prevalence or amount of war observed at any given time is important. Civil war prevalence is defined as the probability of observing either a new war onset or the continuation of an ongoing war or both. Two economic theories of war onset and duration are combined to estimate the prevalence of civil war across more than 150 countries and over 40 years. The analysis is consistent with the findings of earlier studies on war onset and duration. New findings that result from slight improvements in the data and estimation methods show that democracy and ethnic diversity are significant determinants of civil war prevalence.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim Elbadawi & Nicholas Sambanis, 2002. "How Much War Will we see?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(3), pages 307-334, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:46:y:2002:i:3:p:307-334
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    Cited by:

    1. Rigterink, Anouk S., 2010. "The wrong suspect. An enquiry into the endogeneity of natural resource measures to civil war," MPRA Paper 45263, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Mehrdad Vahabi, 2017. "A critical survey of the resource curse literature through the appropriability lens," CEPN Working Papers 2017-14, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    3. Robert MacCulloch & Silvia Pezzini, 2010. "The Roles of Freedom, Growth, and Religion in the Taste for Revolution," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(2), pages 329-358, May.
    4. Ciarli, Tommaso & Kofol, Chiara & Menon, Carlo, 2015. "Business as unusual. An explanation of the increase of private economic activity in high-conflict areas in Afghanistan," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65015, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Philip Keefer, 2008. "Insurgency and Credible Commitment in Autocracies and Democracies," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 22(1), pages 33-61, January.
    6. Jean-Paul Azam & Kartika Bhatia, 2017. "Provoking insurgency in a federal state: theory and application to India," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 183-210, March.
    7. Håvard Hegre, 2005. "Development and the Liberal Peace," Nordic Journal of Political Economy, Nordic Journal of Political Economy, vol. 31, pages 17-46.
    8. Campos, Nauro F & Kuzeyev, Vitaliy S., 2007. "On the Dynamics of Ethnic Fractionalization," IZA Discussion Papers 2822, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    9. Tilman Brück & Patricia Justino & Philip Verwimp & Andrew Tedesco & Alexandra Avdeenko, 2013. "Measuring Conflict Exposure in Micro-Level Surveys," HiCN Working Papers 153, Households in Conflict Network.
    10. J Paul Dunne & Nan Tian, 2016. "Determinants of Civil War and Excess Zeroes," SALDRU Working Papers 191, Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, University of Cape Town.
    11. Bridgman, Benjamin, 2008. "Why are ethnically divided countries poor?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-18, March.
    12. Amnon Levy & Joao Ricardo Faria, 2007. "Ramsey In Dual-Population Lands: Internal Conflict And Utility-Maximizing Consumption," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 339-352.
    13. Stephen Chaudoin & Zachary Peskowitz & Christopher Stanton, 2014. "Beyond Zeroes and Ones: The Intensity and Dynamics of Civil Conflict," NBER Working Papers 20258, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. repec:eee:deveco:v:133:y:2018:i:c:p:434-447 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Silve, Arthur & Verdier, Thierry, 2018. "A theory of regional conflict complexes," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 434-447.
    16. Michael Jetter & Bei Li, 2017. "The Political Economy of Opposition Groups: Peace, Terrorism, or Civil Conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 6747, CESifo Group Munich.
    17. Hlavac, Marek, 2010. "Comment on Benjamin Smith (2004): “Oil Wealth and Regime Survival in the Developing World, 1960-1999”," MPRA Paper 25797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Rigterink, Anouk S., 2012. "New Wars in Numbers. An exploration of various datasets on intra-state violence," MPRA Paper 45264, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Andrea Guariso & Thorsten Rogall, 2017. "Rainfall Inequality, Political Power, and Ethnic Conflict in Africa," LICOS Discussion Papers 39117, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.

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