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External interventions and the duration of civil wars

Author

Listed:
  • Elbadawi, Ibrahim A.
  • Sambanis, Nicholas

Abstract

The authors combine an empirical model of external intervention, with a theoretical model of civil war duration. Their empirical model of intervention allows them to analyze civil war duration, using"expected"rather than"actual"external intervention as an explanatory variable in the duration model. Unlike previous studies, they find that external intervention is positively associated with the duration of civil war. They distinguish partial third-party interventions that extend the length of war, from multilateral"peace"operations, which have a mandate to restore peace without taking sides - and which typically take place at war's end, or at least when both sides have agreed to a cease-fire. In a future paper, the authors will examine whether partial third-party interventions - whatever their effect on a war's duration - increase the risk of war's recurrence. If that proves true, then even if interventions reduce the length of civil war, they may do so at the cost of further destabilizing the political system, and sowing the seeds of future rebellion.

Suggested Citation

  • Elbadawi, Ibrahim A. & Sambanis, Nicholas, 2000. "External interventions and the duration of civil wars," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2433, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:2433
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:oup:jafrec:v:9:y:2000:i:3:p:244-269. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Måns Söderbom, 2004. "On the Duration of Civil War," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(3), pages 253-273, May.
    3. Collier, Paul & Hoeffler, Anke, 1998. "On Economic Causes of Civil War," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(4), pages 563-573, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Edna Carolina Sastoque Ramírez & Mario García Molina, 2007. "Pasiones e intereses: las causas de la guerra civil de 1876-1877 en el Estado Soberano de Santander," Documentos de Trabajo UEC 003962, Universidad Externado de Colombia.
    2. Ali Abdel Gadir Ali, "undated". "On the Challenges of Economic Development in Post-Conflict Sudan," API-Working Paper Series 0501, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    3. Harald Fuhr, 2001. "Constructive Pressures And Incentives To Reform: Globalization and its impact on public sector performance and governance in developing countries," Public Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(3), pages 419-443, September.
    4. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2009. "Civil War: A Review of Fifty Years of Research," Working Papers id:2231, eSocialSciences.
    5. Bove, Vincenzo & Sekeris, Petros, 2011. "Economic Determinants of Third-Party Intervention in Civil Conflict," NEPS Working Papers 4/2011, Network of European Peace Scientists.
    6. Adedokun, Ayokunu, 2017. "Post-conflict peacebuilding: A critical survey of the literature and avenues for future research," MERIT Working Papers 016, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    7. Nicholas Sambanis, 2002. "A Review of Recent Advances and Future Directions in the Quantitative Literature on Civil War," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 215-243.
    8. Dane Rowlands & David Carment, 2006. "Force And Bias: Towards A Predictive Model Of Effective Third-Party Intervention," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 435-456.
    9. Paul Collier & V. L. Elliott & Håvard Hegre & Anke Hoeffler & Marta Reynal-Querol & Nicholas Sambanis, 2003. "Breaking the Conflict Trap : Civil War and Development Policy," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 13938, December.
    10. Shenoy, Ajay, 2008. "The Devil's Calculus: Mathematical Models of Civil War," MPRA Paper 8895, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Jellal, Mohamed, 2014. "Theory of civil war under asymmetric information," MPRA Paper 57600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Christopher Blattman & Edward Miguel, 2010. "Civil War," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-57, March.
    13. Nicholas Staines, 2004. "Economic Performance Over the Conflict Cycle," IMF Working Papers 04/95, International Monetary Fund.
    14. James Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Civil wars and economic growth: A regional comparison," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 451-464.
    15. Vincenzo Bove & Ron Smith, 2011. "The Economics of Peacekeeping," Chapters, in: Derek L. Braddon & Keith Hartley (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. David Carment & Martin Fischer, 2011. "Three’s Company? Towards an Understanding of Third-Party Intervention Effectiveness," Chapters, in: Christopher J. Coyne & Rachel L. Mathers (ed.), The Handbook on the Political Economy of War, chapter 22, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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