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Do Religious Factors Impact Armed Conflict? Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Basedau, Matthias
  • Strüver, Georg
  • Vüllers, Johannes
  • Wegenast, Tim

Abstract

Theoretically, the 'mobilization hypothesis' establishes a link between religion and conflict by arguing that religious structures such as overlapping ethnic and religious identities are prone to mobilization; once politicized, escalation to violent conflict becomes likelier. Yet, despite the religious diversity in sub-Saharan Africa and the religious overtones in a number of African armed conflicts, this assumption has not yet been backed by systematic empirical research on the religion-conflict nexus in the region. The following questions thus remain: Do religious factors significantly impact the onset of (religious) armed conflict? If so, do they follow the logic of the mobilization hypothesis and, if yes, in which way? To answer these questions, this paper draws on a unique data inventory of all sub-Saharan countries for the period 1990-2008, particularly including data on mobilization-prone religious structures (e.g. demographic changes, parallel ethno-religious identities) as well as religious factors indicating actual politicization of religion (e.g. inter-religious tensions, religious discrimination, incitement by religious leaders). Based on logit regressions, results suggest that religion indeed plays a significant role in African armed conflicts. The findings are compatible with the mobilization hypothesis: Overlaps of religious and ethnic identities and religious dominance are conflict-prone; religious polarization is conflict-prone only if combined with religious discrimination and religious tensions.

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  • Basedau, Matthias & Strüver, Georg & Vüllers, Johannes & Wegenast, Tim, 2011. "Do Religious Factors Impact Armed Conflict? Empirical Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," GIGA Working Papers 168, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:gigawp:168
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    Cited by:

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    2. Javier Gardeazabal, 2011. "Linguistic polarization and conflict in the Basque Country," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 149(3), pages 405-425, December.
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    4. Basedau, Matthias & Gobien, Simone & Prediger, Sebastian, 2017. "The Ambivalent Role of Religion for Sustainable Development: A Review of the Empirical Evidence," GIGA Working Papers 297, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.
    5. Jonathan Fox & Chris Bader & Jennifer M. McClure, 2019. "Don’t get mad: The disconnect between religious discrimination and individual perceptions of government," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 36(5), pages 495-516, September.
    6. Peter S. Henne & Jason Klocek, 2019. "Taming the Gods: How Religious Conflict Shapes State Repression," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 63(1), pages 112-138, January.
    7. Galindo-Silva, Hector & Tchuente, Guy, 2021. "Fighting for not-So-Religious souls: The role of religious competition in secular conflicts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 127-152.
    8. Vüllers, Johannes, 2011. "Fighting for a Kingdom of God? The Role of Religion in the Ivorian Crisis," GIGA Working Papers 178, GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies.

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